I think that the reason the buck kill has gone down by "tens of thousands" is because the program is going as designed. More people are shooting does, but as a consequence, more BB are being harvested. There are definetly more bucks out there now, just not the gross gains that some folks assume would come. Some think that if the buck kill goes down by 20,000 every year that there will be a buck behind every tree in 2 years. Other factors still reduce the gains, such as BB harvest, competition mortality, car collisions and also the fact that if a buck lives to be 3.5 or older, you are going to have a heck of a time hunting him. They get real smart and elusive the older they get. AR has two goals, let bucks have the chance to mature and kill more does. Both are happening. As the doe numbers go down there will also be lower reproduction every year which lessens the amount of new bucks. Simply put, the herd is reduced and there are some big bucks around every year.

I must say that I hunt in Lancaster county and I still see the same number of deer I always have but there have been more bucks and bigger bucks. I also figured that with ar's in place the buck kill would drop which is what I wanted because that 20% drop is what normally would have been dinks who never get a chance to mature. Now that they are allowed to age we should see some bigger deer which is what I am noticing this year. I know it's going to be different all over the state and people are going to see different results but it will be interesting to see the harvest numbers this year.

It sure will be interesting. IMO because there are still some who don't comprehend the dynamic of herd reductions on the buck population. If you were under the impression that you were going to see more bucks (because you let some dinkers walk) then you are one of the ones who are in for a let down. Because additional deer are being taken out of the ranks, there are no longer the number of fawns being recruited INTO the herd. In our shrinking herd we will see less deer overall (yes less really means less) and less deer overall means that since boys and girls are born respectively 51%/49% you will not have as many young bucks back-filling as before. According to the plan, you should be seeing less deer overall, and less buck. But the fewer buck in theory may be 'older'. It is yet to be seen if that will translate into 'bigger'. We already know by three years of statistics that it means less.

I see what you are saying in part but just because the total buck harvest went down 20% doesn't mean there are 20% fewer bucks in the woods. Most of the decline in harvest can also be attributed to the fact that all the weekend warriors who usually hunt the first saturday and drop a dink are not putting in the time to take a larger buck. It used to be that joe blow could walk out opening day and shoot the first 3" spike that walked by. Now over the past 3 years this same guy goes out, sees his usual 3" spike but now lets it walk. That buck is still in the woods but is not counted in the harvest numbers. If they allowed spikes and above again you would probably see the harvest numbers go back to where they were 3 years ago. Does this mean that the deer bred like crazy last year and produced vast amounts of buck to get the harvest numbers back up? No probably not. So basically, the bucks are still there, we're just not allowed to shoot everything that walks by us. IMHO

Are you serious? Common sense aside, there have been numberous studies that show a bucks antlers will increase in size from 6 months(buttons) to 1.5 years(spike, forks, small racks, etc.) to 2.5 years(heavier, wider, generally bigger), etc. It's also been studied and found that a deers rack will degrade toward the end of his life(full possible lifespan). And, if you are simply referring to this state as "yet to be seen if that will translate into 'bigger'" then I suggest you take a few evening drives or do some spotlighting. You won't see the bigger bucks without looking for them.

I agree with the rest of your post. We are in line to have fewer deer. I think what's going on right now is the herd is being reduced, but mostly by removing does. The buck to doe ratio is less skewed than it ever was. I believe the buck numbers are the same or similar to pre AR, but the doe numbers are way down. In the years to come I think the herd will gradually become less and less....bucks and does will be less as well as less recruitment as you mentioned.