stupidest regs
09-09-2008, 12:41 PM
#51
Fork Horn
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location:
Posts: 268
RE: stupidest regs
ORIGINAL: GMMAT
I don't see how that's even possible.
This- in a state that has about an 8;1 doe to buck ratio (and that's a conservative estimate).
Believe me- it's possible.
- We have an ocean that borders 2/5th's of our state's total boundaries (so they ain't leaving or coming in that way).
- The eastern 1/3 of our state is DENSELY populated (so no hunting allowed whatsoever in ALOT of these cities/towns).
- 1/2 of our northern border is shared with a state (VT)that, for the most part,doesn't allow does to be taken (so does coming in from VT only add to our doe population).
- We have the CT River dividing the western-most 1/3rd of the state from the eastern-most 2/3rd's (this significantly keeps alot of the does on the side of the river which is substantially more densely populated & where hunting isn't allowed).
Combined withyears & yearsof theabove-mentioned "strict doe-taking limits", what do the think the result would be?
Rob
09-09-2008, 12:59 PM
#52
Giant Nontypical
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 6,867
RE: stupidest regs
here you buy a tag for each deer
ORIGINAL: minnesotadeer
I can see your point, but at $10 a pop times maybe another 10,000-15,000 deer or so, if that high,I'm thinking they don't consider the extra tag revenue enough of a factor. I'm waiting to see the new population density maps come out on the DNR web site and to see in a year or two if the one deer limit and limited doe gun tags has made a difference and will eventually allow us two again. At least they're trying to keep a good population (it's usually well over a million estimated deer to 500,000 hunters who harvest about 200,000 of them), I guess versus some states that try to eradicate it.
The other thing to consider is that there are many more gun hunters in our state, about 9 times as many,as there are bowhunters. Getting an extra permit because of weapon choice wouldn't likely sit well with them.
ORIGINAL: robbcayman
Personally, I would appeal to their wallet. I would tell them the extra doe tags would greatly increase their revenue and keep the population in check. I hope you get them to change their minds.
ORIGINAL: minnesotadeer
We are only allowed one deer per year now too in pretty much the southern half of the state because they claim numbers are down substantially. It was just in the paper this past weekend that statwide, about 62,000 some archery hunters took about 24,000 deer, giving bowhunters a success rate of just over 24 percent. Compare that to gun hunters who took 216,000 plus deer with a 37 percent success rate. Instead of complaining about it, I actually approached the Big Game director via e-mail, asking if they'd consider allowing bowhunters a buck and doe tag, so they could still only take one doe for population management purposes. I used the reasoning of the lower success rate and that the influx of new bowhunters due to this change would be minimal - and that the DNR always has the freedom to change it back if they feel it causes problems. He said they'd consider it.
We are only allowed one deer per year now too in pretty much the southern half of the state because they claim numbers are down substantially. It was just in the paper this past weekend that statwide, about 62,000 some archery hunters took about 24,000 deer, giving bowhunters a success rate of just over 24 percent. Compare that to gun hunters who took 216,000 plus deer with a 37 percent success rate. Instead of complaining about it, I actually approached the Big Game director via e-mail, asking if they'd consider allowing bowhunters a buck and doe tag, so they could still only take one doe for population management purposes. I used the reasoning of the lower success rate and that the influx of new bowhunters due to this change would be minimal - and that the DNR always has the freedom to change it back if they feel it causes problems. He said they'd consider it.
I can see your point, but at $10 a pop times maybe another 10,000-15,000 deer or so, if that high,I'm thinking they don't consider the extra tag revenue enough of a factor. I'm waiting to see the new population density maps come out on the DNR web site and to see in a year or two if the one deer limit and limited doe gun tags has made a difference and will eventually allow us two again. At least they're trying to keep a good population (it's usually well over a million estimated deer to 500,000 hunters who harvest about 200,000 of them), I guess versus some states that try to eradicate it.
The other thing to consider is that there are many more gun hunters in our state, about 9 times as many,as there are bowhunters. Getting an extra permit because of weapon choice wouldn't likely sit well with them.
09-09-2008, 01:16 PM
#53
Dominant Buck
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location:
Posts: 21,043
RE: stupidest regs
OK.....I was hoping we wouldn't have to do this....lol....but here goes...
Let's say (just to keep things simple) that your buck:doe ratio IS 1:8. Let's also make some assumptions....and if you don't agree with them....we'll back up and punt or call another play.
Let's assume that each fall there are 80,000 does and 10,000 bucks in the "herd" (1:8). Let's say that 2/3 of the does get bred, successfully. So now we have 53,600 pregnant does. Let's assume (and this will help your assertion
) that they only give birth, on average to one fawn, each. So now we have 53,600 new deer in the herd. OK....the chances of a deer fawn being a doe or a fawn are 50%. So....we now have 26,800 more bucks in the herd than we had when the mating season began.
Now....to recap....our herd is now 143,600 strong. What kind of %-age do you want to use as a fawn mortality rate? Let's use 20%. So we now only have 21,440doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns.What about mortality rate for the adults? Let's use 10% (VERY low, likely....especially for your climate). So now we have 72,000 does and 9,000 bucks.
Catching up.....we have 72,000 does,9,000 bucks.....21,440 doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns. Total herd of 123,880....of which 30,440 are bucks and 93,440 are does.
Your buck:doe ratio is "roughly" 1:3.
Where did I go wrong?
Let's say (just to keep things simple) that your buck:doe ratio IS 1:8. Let's also make some assumptions....and if you don't agree with them....we'll back up and punt or call another play.
Let's assume that each fall there are 80,000 does and 10,000 bucks in the "herd" (1:8). Let's say that 2/3 of the does get bred, successfully. So now we have 53,600 pregnant does. Let's assume (and this will help your assertion
) that they only give birth, on average to one fawn, each. So now we have 53,600 new deer in the herd. OK....the chances of a deer fawn being a doe or a fawn are 50%. So....we now have 26,800 more bucks in the herd than we had when the mating season began.Now....to recap....our herd is now 143,600 strong. What kind of %-age do you want to use as a fawn mortality rate? Let's use 20%. So we now only have 21,440doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns.What about mortality rate for the adults? Let's use 10% (VERY low, likely....especially for your climate). So now we have 72,000 does and 9,000 bucks.
Catching up.....we have 72,000 does,9,000 bucks.....21,440 doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns. Total herd of 123,880....of which 30,440 are bucks and 93,440 are does.
Your buck:doe ratio is "roughly" 1:3.
Where did I go wrong?
09-09-2008, 01:59 PM
#54
Fork Horn
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location:
Posts: 268
RE: stupidest regs
ORIGINAL: GMMAT
OK.....I was hoping we wouldn't have to do this....lol....but here goes...
Let's say (just to keep things simple) that your buck:doe ratio IS 1:8. Let's also make some assumptions....and if you don't agree with them....we'll back up and punt or call another play.
Let's assume that each fall there are 80,000 does and 10,000 bucks in the "herd" (1:8). Let's say that 2/3 of the does get bred, successfully. So now we have 53,600 pregnant does. Let's assume (and this will help your assertion) that they only give birth, on average to one fawn, each. So now we have 53,600 new deer in the herd. OK....the chances of a deer fawn being a doe or a fawn are 50%. So....we now have 26,800 more bucks in the herd than we had when the mating season began.
Now....to recap....our herd is now 143,600 strong. What kind of %-age do you want to use as a fawn mortality rate? Let's use 20%. So we now only have 21,440doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns.What about mortality rate for the adults? Let's use 10% (VERY low, likely....especially for your climate). So now we have 72,000 does and 9,000 bucks.
Catching up.....we have 72,000 does,9,000 bucks.....21,440 doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns. Total herd of 123,880....of which 30,440 are bucks and 93,440 are does.
Your buck:doe ratio is "roughly" 1:3.
Where did I go wrong?
OK.....I was hoping we wouldn't have to do this....lol....but here goes...
Let's say (just to keep things simple) that your buck:doe ratio IS 1:8. Let's also make some assumptions....and if you don't agree with them....we'll back up and punt or call another play.
Let's assume that each fall there are 80,000 does and 10,000 bucks in the "herd" (1:8). Let's say that 2/3 of the does get bred, successfully. So now we have 53,600 pregnant does. Let's assume (and this will help your assertion
) that they only give birth, on average to one fawn, each. So now we have 53,600 new deer in the herd. OK....the chances of a deer fawn being a doe or a fawn are 50%. So....we now have 26,800 more bucks in the herd than we had when the mating season began.Now....to recap....our herd is now 143,600 strong. What kind of %-age do you want to use as a fawn mortality rate? Let's use 20%. So we now only have 21,440doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns.What about mortality rate for the adults? Let's use 10% (VERY low, likely....especially for your climate). So now we have 72,000 does and 9,000 bucks.
Catching up.....we have 72,000 does,9,000 bucks.....21,440 doe fawns and 21,440 buck fawns. Total herd of 123,880....of which 30,440 are bucks and 93,440 are does.
Your buck:doe ratio is "roughly" 1:3.
Where did I go wrong?
You went "wrong" with not accounting for the strict limits placed on being able to take a doe.
You went "wrong" on your "2/3rd's of the does get successfully bred" guesstimate. Once a buck hooks up with a doe, he ain't leaving her for another doe until she will no longer stand for breeding. All the while, there are other does who are able to be bred & AREN'T being bred. Try your calculation again with THIS assumption- 1/4 of the does get bred.
Add to that the the mortality rate of bucks being higher than that of does- I'd say 2 to 1. Now re-run your calculation with those parameters & see what kind of numbers you come up with.
Rob
09-09-2008, 02:18 PM
#55
Dominant Buck
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location:
Posts: 21,043
RE: stupidest regs
You went "wrong" in not accounting for the ability for each MA hunter to take TWO bucks with one license in a single year.
You went "wrong" with not accounting for the strict limits placed on being able to take a doe.
You went "wrong" on your "2/3rd's of the does get successfully bred" guesstimate. Once a buck hooks up with a doe, he ain't leaving her for another doe until she will no longer stand for breeding. All the while, there are other does who are able to be bred & AREN'T being bred. Try your calculation again with THIS assumption- 1/4 of the does get bred.
Add to that the the mortality rate of bucks being higher than that of does- I'd say 2 to 1.
09-09-2008, 02:29 PM
#56
Nontypical Buck
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Cobb County, Georgia
Posts: 2,582
RE: stupidest regs
ORIGINAL: ducsauce
Dan...maybe I shouldn't say what Virginia allows but I'll say it anyway. We're allowed six deer per year, three of those are either-sex tags. We can also buy unlimited "bonus" tags for does. I feel for you man. That's rough.
Dan...maybe I shouldn't say what Virginia allows but I'll say it anyway.
We're allowed six deer per year, three of those are either-sex tags. We can also buy unlimited "bonus" tags for does. I feel for you man. That's rough.
09-09-2008, 04:55 PM
#57
Fork Horn
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location:
Posts: 268
RE: stupidest regs
ORIGINAL: GMMAT
So when is your number valid? Before the season? After the season? Tell me and we'll back up and start over! What's your estimated herd in MA? Whats the harvst report for bucks taken? Does? When do you (what month) want to begin the exercise?
See question, above. The numbers CAN NOT be "moving" once the season is over and all kills have been reported.
OK...but you're way off. That would have every buck ONLY breeding 2 does, each. Thats a VERY conservative "guess"...and it's HIGHLY unrealistic even in more balanced herds. We'll meet somewhere in the middle if you want...but you have to see the writing on the wall.
I wanna know where you pulled this from. Cite "something"!....lol
So when is your number valid? Before the season? After the season? Tell me and we'll back up and start over! What's your estimated herd in MA? Whats the harvst report for bucks taken? Does? When do you (what month) want to begin the exercise?
See question, above. The numbers CAN NOT be "moving" once the season is over and all kills have been reported.
OK...but you're way off. That would have every buck ONLY breeding 2 does, each. Thats a VERY conservative "guess"...and it's HIGHLY unrealistic even in more balanced herds. We'll meet somewhere in the middle if you want...but you have to see the writing on the wall.
I wanna know where you pulled this from. Cite "something"!....lol
OK, I'll try to address every question you asked & then askthree of my own.
- My numbers are valid from the beginning of the hunting season (~10/13) as the survey is executed starting in July & finishes in September. My numbers aren't "moving" as you would like to imply. They are "static" and are tracked 6-year trailing. This means the DF&W tracks these numbers and publishes them along with the previous 5 year's data.
- 85,000-90,000 deer herd in MA
- 2006 Harvest Report (2007 not published yet) is as follows:
* 10,479 total deer reported (7,088-gun / 3391-bow)
* Average total harvest (since 2000) 11,758
* 2006 deer harvest breakdown by sex: 7,197-bucks / 3282-does
(like I said, more like 2 to 1 mortality rate for bucks to does, this is in DIRECT corrolation to our retarded Harvest limits for does/bucks).
- Bowhunters - 250,000 (that's 3+ bowhunters for every deer in thestate!) DOESN'T Include gun hunters- how's that for pressure?
- You want me to "cite" something? Other thanyour apparent ignorance of our MA state deer herd? My numbers come from:
Mass. Dept. of Fish & Wildlife
251 Causeway St. #400
Boston, MA 02114
617.626.1500
http://mass.gov/dfwele/
Now, here aremy3 questions to you (I'm dying to hear your response):
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent hunting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent scouting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many deer have you ever legally harvested in MA?
Now who is "LOL" ???
The "writing on the wall" that you failed to comprehend, is the cumulative affect that the whacked out harvest limits (by sex) have created with respect to the buck;doe ratio here in MA. I've spent the last 44 years in MA- the last 26 hunting whitetail deer. I say with conviction that there are many hunters in this state who will attempt to harvest the first buck that comes within lethal range of their weapon of choice. Whether it's a 1.5 year old spike or a 4.5 year old 135 class mainframe 8. Many of these same hunters have to sit and pass as doe after doe walk by within range- because they have no legal permit to harvest any doe in the Zone in which they are hunting. Sad but true.
Rob
09-09-2008, 06:05 PM
#58
Nontypical Buck
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 3,606
RE: stupidest regs
he is probably right I live in the neighboring state of R.I. and i would estimate the ratio to be similar. There is way more does than bucks . the mortality rate is to high for them
09-10-2008, 07:38 AM
#59
Dominant Buck
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location:
Posts: 21,043
RE: stupidest regs
"Mortality rate" for the sake of resource management doesn't include harvest numbers. Totally separate. But we'll go with your fgures.
Let's use 90K as the herd pop. to keep things easy.
Perfect
Hell I completely GUESSED 90K. How's that for ignorant....lol?
So let's use these "cited" numbers.
Total herd on 10/13.......90,000
Total number of does taken .......3282
Total number of Bucks taken.......7,197
Total number of herd - Post season - 79,521
Now....assuming you have a ("albeit in my mind RIDICULOUSLY high) 1:8 buck:doe ratio, let's do the math....again.
You'd have roughly 8,836 bucks when the season is completed (and let me add.....your hunters are freakin AWESOME if they're finding all these elsuive creatures). You'd also have roughly 70,688 does. Total herd of 79,524.
I'll even cave and give you your un-cited but again RIDICULOULSY low successful bred rate of 25%......but if we're gonna do that......we're ALSO gonna figure in a percentage of twins. You got your off-the-wall number enetered. I'll enter mine. I'll figure 1/2 the bred does to give birth to twins. Doesn't sound like too much of a stretch, to me.
So.....17,672 does will drop 26,508 fawns.....1/2 of which WILL be bucks (on average). So now we have (total herd numbers).....your beginning 79,524 + 26,508 = 106,032 total herd.,,,of which we have 22,090 bucks.
Buckoe ratio is now 1:5.
We can go into REAL Mortality rates if you like.......and we can project these figures over 5 years if you want....and extrapolate. But it ain't gonna get any BETTER.....for you (or...should I say...for your doom and gloom outlook).
I'm not. It's simple math.
1. Never hunted or scouted deer inMA.
2. See No. 1
3. See No. 1
If I hunted and scouted in MA.....would it change the way your deer herd replenishes itself?
Let's use 90K as the herd pop. to keep things easy.
My numbers are valid from the beginning of the hunting season
- You want me to "cite" something? Other thanyour apparent ignorance of our MA state deer herd?
So let's use these "cited" numbers.
Total herd on 10/13.......90,000
Total number of does taken .......3282
Total number of Bucks taken.......7,197
Total number of herd - Post season - 79,521
Now....assuming you have a ("albeit in my mind RIDICULOUSLY high) 1:8 buck:doe ratio, let's do the math....again.
You'd have roughly 8,836 bucks when the season is completed (and let me add.....your hunters are freakin AWESOME if they're finding all these elsuive creatures
). You'd also have roughly 70,688 does. Total herd of 79,524.I'll even cave and give you your un-cited but again RIDICULOULSY low successful bred rate of 25%......but if we're gonna do that......we're ALSO gonna figure in a percentage of twins. You got your off-the-wall number enetered. I'll enter mine. I'll figure 1/2 the bred does to give birth to twins. Doesn't sound like too much of a stretch, to me.
So.....17,672 does will drop 26,508 fawns.....1/2 of which WILL be bucks (on average). So now we have (total herd numbers).....your beginning 79,524 + 26,508 = 106,032 total herd.,,,of which we have 22,090 bucks.
Buck
oe ratio is now 1:5.We can go into REAL Mortality rates if you like.......and we can project these figures over 5 years if you want....and extrapolate. But it ain't gonna get any BETTER.....for you (or...should I say...for your doom and gloom outlook).
Now who is "LOL" ???
Now, here aremy3 questions to you (I'm dying to hear your response):
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent hunting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent scouting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many deer have you ever legally harvested in MA?
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent hunting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many days, in the last 6 years, have you spent scouting Whitetail Deer in MA?
- How many deer have you ever legally harvested in MA?
2. See No. 1
3. See No. 1
If I hunted and scouted in MA.....would it change the way your deer herd replenishes itself?
09-10-2008, 07:58 AM
#60
Giant Nontypical
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 7,208
RE: stupidest regs
Jeff & Graydawg
I actually made up an excell spreadsheet that will calculate over time the B/D ratio inputting the different variables.
Jeff is right, that the B/D ratio heading into hunting season can't be 8:1. BUT I will give graydawg some slack that a "percieved" B ratio can really look skewed when youobserve fawns and count them as "does".
I actually made up an excell spreadsheet that will calculate over time the B/D ratio inputting the different variables.
Jeff is right, that the B/D ratio heading into hunting season can't be 8:1. BUT I will give graydawg some slack that a "percieved" B
ratio can really look skewed when youobserve fawns and count them as "does".