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Odds of success

Old 11-21-2006, 01:04 PM
Nontypical Buck
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Southwest Ohio
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Default RE: Odds of success

I am pretty sure that the aarcheryelk success rate on elk in CO is right around 13%-14% annually. And honestly, ShatoDavis, those who want to argue statistics generally just don't understand them. You just have to be sure that you are applying the statistics to the right argument. Politics is where this gets skewed a lot, not hunting so much. Did you succeed in harvesting a deer this year? If not, then yes you dropped the success rate no matter what you COULD have shot. If the statistic was possible success rate, then you would have been good.
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Old 11-23-2006, 07:58 AM
Nontypical Buck
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Location: Tennessee
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Default RE: Odds of success

ORIGINAL: ShatoDavis

What you said about Nebraska really made no sense.

I was referring to how the ratio between different species changes over a period of time, usuallya decade.
My uncle hunted land upin Dawes County,Nebraskaall his life and said that in the '80s, the turkey population was flourishing, while the deer population was rather low, now, there are way fewer turkeys than deer.

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Old 11-23-2006, 07:59 AM
Nontypical Buck
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Default RE: Odds of success

ORIGINAL: ShatoDavis

See my point.
Yes, I do.
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Old 11-23-2006, 08:11 AM
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: NW Colorado
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Default RE: Odds of success


Colorado,2005 hunting season stats from CDOW...

-Pronghorn -78% success: over 3 out of 4 succeed
- Deer - 45% success: less than half
- Elk - 23% success: under 1 out of 4 succeed

I'd say its pretty accurate, alot of things factor into this as well, for example, I had a Cow and Bull tag this year for elk, only filled one tag. I also had a Buck and Doe tag, only filled one there as well. Did fill my only Pronghorn tag though. Then you have my aunt, who we refer to as " The Queen" she show up to be with the family and friends in hunting camp. She had a tag but really only hunted opening day and couple other evening hunts. I'm sure every camp has someone like that. A person that doesnt hunt but goes hunting for the experience.
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Old 11-23-2006, 09:51 AM
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Beautiful Western Montana
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Default RE: Odds of success

In need of consideration is how the success ratios are generated. If it's animals harvestedper tags sold, then this makes no account for people who bought a tag, yet never went afield. Additionally, it would not factor how much time was spent afield by each individual tag holder. Can any usefull "success" implications be draw from that scenerio, probably not, and it's usefullness is primarily for herd inventory numbers.
In Montana, check stations are set up around the state, and hunters are required to stop reguardless of whether or not they have punched their tag. This success ratio is gleemed from actual hunters afield, and is a better indicator of actual field success. However, until the migration, the hunting is done with chasing the resident herds, and often it becomes a matter of luck. The hunter sucess ratios are skewed dramatically, if the Pintler Migration kicks in, suddenly elk are everwhere, and success goes up dramatically. On a final note, I would suspect that their are a certain group of hunters who are successful every year.
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Old 11-23-2006, 10:19 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: WYO
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Default RE: Odds of success

My thoughts: the numbers are probably pretty accurate. Most hunters do not have the dedication necessary to get an elk in tough years, such as when the snows come later and the migration doesn't happen until after rifle season. Antelope are easy to shoot because they are so easy to spot and there are so many of them. Deer can be easy or hard, depending on where you're hunting them, so it makes sense the success ratio would be closer to the middle.
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