RE: Odds of success
In need of consideration is how the success ratios are generated. If it's animals harvestedper tags sold, then this makes no account for people who bought a tag, yet never went afield. Additionally, it would not factor how much time was spent afield by each individual tag holder. Can any usefull "success" implications be draw from that scenerio, probably not, and it's usefullness is primarily for herd inventory numbers.
In Montana, check stations are set up around the state, and hunters are required to stop reguardless of whether or not they have punched their tag. This success ratio is gleemed from actual hunters afield, and is a better indicator of actual field success. However, until the migration, the hunting is done with chasing the resident herds, and often it becomes a matter of luck. The hunter sucess ratios are skewed dramatically, if the Pintler Migration kicks in, suddenly elk are everwhere, and success goes up dramatically. On a final note, I would suspect that their are a certain group of hunters who are successful every year.