fshafly2

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Some statistical observationsonthe 2006 Bowhunting Contest:

Number of teams: 41
Number of participants: 410
Number of bucks entered: 109
Average hunter success: 0.2658 (109/410)
Average buck score: 99.7 (10864 inches/109 bucks); standard deviation 38 inches
Expected score for each team: 264 (10*.2658*99.7)

Team Rankings: (discrepancies notedin the score totals for teams 23 and 27).




Since membership on any given team is a random event (Team XX exception noted), and with hunter success at 0.265, the

Odds of a team with no bucks: One out of 22
Odds of a team with 1 buck: One out of ~6
Odds of a team with 2 bucks: One out of ~4
Odds of a team with 3 bucks: One out of ~4
Odds of a team with 4 bucks: One out of ~6
Odds of a team with 5 bucks: One out of 14
Odds of a team with 6 bucks: One out of 46
Odds of a team with 7 bucks: One out of 224
Odds of a team with 8 bucks: One out of 1650
Odds of a team with 9 bucks: One out of 20530
Odds of a team with 10 bucks: One out of 567000

Odds that this contest would have a team with 8 bucks, given 41 teams: One out of 41 (this is coincidentaltothe number of teams).

Added in edit:Another way to look atthis last stat is that if you put all thenames in a hat, and drew41 teams randomly from the 410 names, and repeated thisaction 41 times,you would expect to draw a team with8buck entries only one time. Way to go Team 17!

-fsh

Matt/TN

my deer hunting contest (we won) had like 7/10 success rate!!

rybohunter

Thanks for posting up the stats. That's pretty interesting.

fshafly2

Here are some data plots based on individual reports. I may have missed some data(?), as I found~183 inches difference in the totals between the scores for each team vs scores reported in the "photo" section. -fsh

This first plot shows the Total Inches reported on a weekly basis (either the stated harvest date was used, or the posting date if the harvest date was not provided). You can see the "October Lull"...




This next plot shows the average buck scorereported on a weekly basis. No one week stands out; note thatthe data averages in Sept and Janare based on smallsample sizes. The overall average of all bucksis ~100 inches.

GR8atta2d

Great stuff Fsh..thanks for taking the time..That is some seriously useful info for next year when guys ask when to take vacation!

Canuck_2

Fsh, this is fascinating information. Very neat that the odds of a team getting 8 bucks, which just one team did,matches the exact number of teams. I see the median team score is quite close to the mean, just a couple of positions out.

One thing that surprises me just a bit it that larger scoring bucks didn't show more of a spike (bad pun?) in November. It always seems around here that the bigger ones come out then and a lot of hunters take nice, mature bucks at that time. At any rate, I'm determined not to take my buck too early this year so I get to hunt the rut, which is always exciting.

And 6th place for our team! Not bad for a bunch of 'underdogs'. Thanks to you and antler eater for carrying us.

rybohunter

Any chance you can whip up the tallys for each individual teams average buck score? I'd like to see which team had the highest average buck score(say for teams killing at least 4 Bucks)

fshafly2

rybohunter
Easily done, thanks to excel.
Here are the bowhunting contest teamrankings based on average score for teams with at least 2 entries, with at least 3 entries, and with at least 4 entries. Any other requests??
NOTE: if next year's contest data included the time of daythe hunter took the shot, and the location (State/Province), some more interesting (& useless, lol) stats could come to light. -fsh

mauser06

awesome work man. thanx..thats alot of light to shed lol. pretty neat to see it all laid out like that!

i always though the first week(summer patterns..not pressured yet etc) and the last 2 weeks(rut) would be the best....and the graph shows that perfectly.

i did go against pretty high odds and the only legal buck i seen WAS the week of the october lull. like i always say...cant kill em if you aint out there..just never know when ull get the shot.

Canuck_2

Geez, get a load of team 26. Only 2 members shot bucks and they average 188+. Gadzooks! They still came in 8th Imagine what they could have done with a little support from the rest of the team.

fsh, I agree - time of day and location would be great additions to the data base.