Hunt By Numbers.
 

Hide the women and children, brace yourselves and open your minds, because The Undisputed King of Archery is about to take you down a road that you've never been down...


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Stage 1: Identifying a target.

Disclaimer: I totally just made up the numbers here, but they soundclose enoughto being reasonable - so I ran with it. You can edit/change everything to fit your own situation.

Identify and Outlineyour age structure. (we'll keep it simple for the purposes of this demonstration).
[ul][*]You start off witha 1.5 year old buck.[*]For every 3 1.5 year olds, there's a 2.5 year old buck.[*]For every 3 2.5's, there's a 3.5.[*]For every 3 3.5's, there's a 4.5.[*]For every 3 4.5's, there's a 5.5.[*]And so on...[/ul]
So, by that math:
[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 3 1.5's.[*]For every 3.5, there's 3 2.5's and9 1.5's.[*]For every 4.5, there's 3 3.5's, 9 2.5's, and 27 1.5's.[*]For every 5.5, there's 3 4.5's, 9 3.5's, 27 2.5's and 81 1.5's. (TRANSLATION:ONE 5.5 year old buck per 121 bucks) [*]If you have a 2:1 buck-to-doe ratio, that's ONE 5.5 year old buck in every 363 deer. [/ul]


The Population Pyramid unlocks the secrets of the Schwartz.


The Moral Of The Story:If your deer density is 20 deer per square mile, that means that there's one 5.5 year old buck per every 18 square miles of territory.
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STAGE 2: Getting the deer in range.

Let's just say, for the sake of argument that my township isabout 35square miles (that's about average). By my math above - there should be approximately two 5.5 year old bucks in my township. 35 square miles is 22,400 acres of land mass. Do you have any idea how hard it is to see, locate, and dial-in on that particular deer? It's a magnanimous commitment of time and effort, topped off by some VERY long odds.

Mathematically, if your range is 30 yards...
KILL ZONE= 3.14 x 90 ft (squared)
KILL ZONE= 25,434 square feet

So, if you're hunting a 22,400 acre area....
1 Acre = 43,560 square feet

So, if an average Township is 22,400 acres....
43,560 x 22,400 ACRES = 975,744,000 SQUARE FEET


That means that, at any given time, your odds of having either ofthetwo 5.5 year oldbucks in the township WITHIN 30 yards is:
25,434 / 975,744,000 = .000026(x2)

Your odds of having either ofthetwo 5.5 year oldbucks in the township WITHIN 30 yards is: .005% (that sucks)
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Stage 3: Go for the Gusto.

Now, let's pretend that you're hunting the biggest buck in the COUNTY. If an average county is 1000 square miles, and there are 27,878,000 square feet in a square mile...

Your chances of having the biggest buck in the county within range at any given momentare:

25,434 / 27,878,000,000 = .0000000912.

That's .00000912%. Pretty good odds, eh?



Step 4. Assessing Your Odds.

In 3 years,my logs show that I've seen97bucks from the stand (with about a 2:1 Doe-to-Buck ratio. Of those bucks,77 1.5's, 17 2.5's, and 3 3.5's (by my best guess).

So, MY numbers would be:

[ul][*]4.5 yearling bucks per 2.5[*]5.7 2.5's per 3.5[*](extrapolating) 5.7 3.5's per 4.5[*](extrapolating again) 5.7 4.5's per 5.5.[/ul]
So, in MY area (based upon3 years ofrecords)-

[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 4.5 yearlings.[*]For every 3.5, there's 5.7 2.5's and 25.65 yearling bucks.[*]For every 4.5, there's 5.7 3.5's, 32 2.5's, and 115 yearlings.[*]For every 5.5, there's 5.7 4.5's, 32 3.5's, 182 2.5's, and 517 yearlings.[/ul]

So, while you WANT your population pyramid to look like this:

Good



Mine looks like this:

crappy

Which sucks.


So, what the hell does all this mean?

If my numerical interpretations are right: That means that I'll have one 5.5 year old buck for every 737 Antlered Deer. If I have a 2:1 B-D ratio, that's 1 5.5 year-old buck in every 2211 whitetail deer.

1 5.5 year old buck per 2211 deer.

If you presume 20 DPSM, that's 1 5.5 buck in every 110 square miles. If your average township/boro is 35 square miles - that means there's ONE 5.5 per every 3 townships. Ballpark.


So what's realistic for YOU?

If I see a deer, here are my percentages:

[ul][*].05% that it will be a 5.5 year old buck[*].26% that it will be a 4.5 year old buck[*]1.4% that it will be a 3.5 year old buck[*]8.2% that it will be a 2.5 year old buck[*]23.4% that it will be a yearling buck[*]67% that it will be a doe. [/ul]
On average, I see about 100 deer per year from the stand in archery season.These numbers are telling me that I willlikely see 1.71 3.5 year old+ deer per year. No guarantee that they're in-range. Just a visual. That's one chance, maybe two, on a deer that's most-likely going to be 3.5 years old.

Those numbers are spot-on, as they relate to my real-world results.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Wow, that's good work. Depressing but impressive none the less. You have wayyyy to much time on your hands.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Just put a link to this on the excuse thread you wussie:D

You are no longer the King, we elected a new guy[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

All those numbers make my head hurt.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Definately too much time to kill....Yet impressive

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

LOL
Your man card has been revoked!

Very interesting and puts it all in perspective, thx

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Chances of getting hit by a car in SW PA (Allegheny county) than killed by Fran 98%:D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Way too much time on your hands. I NEED your job!!!!!!!!!!

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Better view

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Keep it up Gary - I'lldrive out toMichigan and twist both of your nipplesright off.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Don't tease me:D

This post reminds me of he little boy/man in the Gym last night

I cannot bench 300 pounds because

My mother is small boned
I was not breast fed
I have a bad back
My dad did not hug me
My family did not eat meat
I am small boned
I have long muscle twitch[&:]
I have a hang nail

Man up Fran you're the KING. Demand it

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Fran:

Your "Gomer Pyle" with enough stand time in the rightarea theory is sounding better and better.;)

And I voted "Lewd, offensive and vulgar". So there.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

What were the odds of thebuck in Gary's photo to have been hit by a carat thatexact time and location?

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

My guess is better than Fran's:D[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

My God man! You weren't at work when you spun those numbers where you? I'd hate to think that time was passed on to the consumers! lol

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

How many licensed drivers v. licensed hunters in ANY "location"? We'll start, there.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

There has been a lot of good conversation about what it takes to kill mature deer.In certain area's I really don't believe it is possible to do it with any consistency if at all.
How many of you know bowhunters who year in and year out kill 4.5 year old bucks or older (who are doing it legally)I would be curious to know how many hunters in your area are accomplishing this and what do you believe is attributing to their success?

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I voted this guy Duke of PA

http://www.huntingnet.com/forum/tm.aspx?m=2371303

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Since this is a great question I will get serious.

I know 2 hunters in MI, which on average is worst than PA, who put down mature bucks year after year.

Eberhart is good a 3.5 and above.

John Benedict, deer shot 4 miles as the crow flies from me

Other guy I will not utter his name here:D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

You're awfully serious there.... [8D]I was just busting his balls to see if he could make a "mock up" of the odds of ""becoming road kill :D;)
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RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Why must you always assume I'm serious or defensive?:)

Hell I was wanting to see where you were going with this one.....lol. "Serious"? With that kinda softball?

Please[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

With no "smilies" and your trademark CAPS, how else would one take it? ;)


As for your first question, because that is how you come across in text as I read it.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Jeff if we show that a chevy to 55 mph has a better chance of killing a big buck than Fran, well that is something the King could not handle.

Fran world would collapse, and even the great Dr. Phil could not save Fran[:o]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Thanks Gary,
I understand.;)I would be interested to hear others comments on this.We likely have some of the must obsessed,die hard hunters going who participate here and it will be interesting to see what everyone's comments are.I don't know anyone in my area who does it on a consistent basis with a rifle much less archery equipment.I don't anyone who does it on 3.5 year old bucks or older.If it was being done I would know about it.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I've had this discussion with you and Mo on several occasions. Don't assume anything. I was playing with ya...and actually thought it waould be a neat discussion.

Hugs through the computer lines.......MWWWaahhh! (feel better?)[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Your in NY correct

There is a guy in SE corner who has shot some monsters, one that scores 215'' last year. I have his info at home.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I never implied my feelings were hurt.... :DSo, I am going to have to skip out on the hugs for now ;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

All I can say is I'm glad this is basically a 3 man thread.[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Nice work king.

Although I'd liken my numbers to this

for every 8 1.5's there's a 2.5.
for every 5 2.5's there's 1 3.5
for every 5 3.5's there is a 4.5
and for every 10 4.5's there is a 5.5 with a little leprachan riding on his backwith a bag full of gold coins. Kill the buck and you get the gold!

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

It is always nice to see good conversations erode to bickering![:-]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Jesus.....are you the board ninnie, now?....lol

If you don't have anything to add....or bitch about.....move along. Nothing here to see.......keep to the right.......

Now Buckeye......more licensed drivers or more licensed hunters? We'll go from there! This could be good. (but in all seriousness.....you threw this one underhanded....and there's a short porch in left;))

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

This is strike 2 in PA.
I hold little regard for my fellow hunter in this state....but I hold less regard for my fellow driver. :([:'(]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

good post!

and nice buck....too bad somebody hit it[&:]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Ninnie,no I don't think so.I was just hoping to see and participate in something that is constructive! I'll move along now and let you resume your battle over who is the most misunderstood.:D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

You really do have too much free time on your hands dude!

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Don't leave yet

I am looking like mad for that guy in NY's name. He is one hell of a hunter

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

So what the king is trying to tell me, is that there are 7 to 8 3.5yo bucks on a 10,000 acre public hunting grounds, by his numbers. Hasn't his majesty himself hunted bigger tracts than this?

I thought these bucks don't exist?:D;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

You kidding, tsoc? You thought this was constructive?

Damn, King....you are good.

I was only kidding, tsoc. The numbers are interesting....and I was prepared to back up my car v. hunter case with some interesting tidbits.

But I'll bow out for the constructive crew......no problems.[8D]:)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

So now that I've stopped the bleeding in my brain, what you're basicallysaying, is that none of us really have a snowball'schance in he!! [:@]Thanx King!! way to inspire, bro! :D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gary,You have to give me more clues.Charles Alsheimer is from Bath NY,that is in the western part of the state in and surrounding the most productive counties.Bill Vanzis or Vaznis is from NY although I don't know what part.He is a pretty heavily published outdoor writer and has written a couple of books.Please don't say Peter Fiduccia? I wont say publicly what my thoughts are about him.
I am not sure whoelse you may be thinking about.If you give me their claim to fame I might be able to piece it together.