RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I work for a Cellular phone service carrier. In Cellsite Tech terms we have what is called an MSA and an RSA. An MSA is a "Metropolitan Service Area". An RSA is a "Rural Service Area". It all boils down to this. Some of us hunt in MSA's and some hunt in RSA's.

Same old BS, different day.

LT

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

If I had a penny every time I heard that:eek:....

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Joe...

Just because you can't understand and follow along......that doesn't mean it can't be interesting for the rest of us.

Math is fun. Don't be a hater!:)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

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RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I've seen something like this before, but the odds were based on B&C bucks instead of age, someone else can find out how many 5 1/2 year olds it takes to get a B&C buck. The odds weremuch better than I thought. They took the number oflicensed hunters over a 10 year period and divided by the the number of170" typical and 195" nontypicals foreach state over the same 10 year period. I can'tremember the exact numbers, but this is close.

Kansas was #1 at1in 4000 something odds each year
Illinois was #2 at 1 in 12,000 something odds each year
Kentucky was #3 at 1 in 18,000 something odds each year
And the numbers keep going up from there. Also figure in that allot of those hunters sight there gun in the day before season and hunt one weekend a year. Also figure in that 80% shoot the firstbuck they see.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I think those coaster size nipples are getting out of control. However, I see a I like your logic... numbers don't lie. You're still the undisputed king of small deer in my book. Keep it up buddy, keep it up.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

God, I never thought I'd say this, but I long for the old days when threads were declared off topic and the author was given a stern warning. OH wait, that still happens for some. Ok, forget what I said.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Incase his Majesty missed it the first time around.[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

ummmm im telling...............MOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYY YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY! :D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Ryan - I'd have to say that those numbers would pretty adequately describe what I see on an annual basis.

Rybo brings up a great point - let's see how YOU can apply this math to YOUR hunting area. This is where record-keeping comes in handy.

Step 4. Assessing Your Odds.

In 3 years,my logs show that I've seen97bucks from the stand (with about a 2:1 Doe-to-Buck ratio. Of those bucks,77 1.5's, 17 2.5's, and 3 3.5's (by my best guess).

So, MY numbers would be:
[ul][*]4.5 yearling bucks per 2.5[*]5.7 2.5's per 3.5[*](extrapolating) 5.7 3.5's per 4.5[*](extrapolating again) 5.7 4.5's per 5.5.[/ul]
So, in MY area (based upon3 years ofrecords)-
[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 4.5 yearlings.[*]For every 3.5, there's 5.7 2.5's and 25.65 yearling bucks.[*]For every 4.5, there's 5.7 3.5's, 32 2.5's, and 115 yearlings.[*]For every 5.5, there's 5.7 4.5's, 32 3.5's, 182 2.5's, and 517 yearlings.[/ul]
So, while you WANT your population pyramid to look like this:


Mine looks like this:


Which sucks.


So, what the hell does all this mean?

If my numerical interpretations are right: That means that I'll have one 5.5 year old buck for every 737 Antlered Deer. If I have a 2:1 B-D ratio, that's 1 5.5 year-old buck in every 2211 whitetail deer.

1 5.5 year old buck per 2211 deer.

If you presume 20 DPSM, that's 1 5.5 buck in every 110 square miles. If your average township/boro is 35 square miles - that means there's ONE 5.5 per every 3 townships. Ballpark.


So what's realistic for YOU?

If I see a deer, here are my percentages:
[ul][*].05% that it will be a 5.5 year old buck[*].26% that it will be a 4.5 year old buck[*]1.4% that it will be a 3.5 year old buck[*]8.2% that it will be a 2.5 year old buck[*]23.4% that it will be a yearling buck[*]67% that it will be a doe. [/ul]


On average, I see about 100 deer per year from the stand in archery season.These numbers are telling me that I willlikely see 1.71 3.5 year old+ deer per year. No guarantee that they're in-range. Just a visual. That's one chance, maybe two, on a deer that's most-likely going to be 3.5 years old.

Those numbers are spot-on, as they relate to my real-world results.




So has anyone else sat down and came up with their own ratios?

If anyone is feeling REALLY ambitious, they could do us all a favor and make an online calculator.

PA guys - do you think my numbers are close to, or mirror yours? Or do you think I'm off-base?

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

While the King's numbers are compelling, the acrage and milage listed does not take into account whitetail habitat. So, if the amount of milage in a county is 1000 sq. mi., but the number of sq. mi. of whitetail habitat is say 500 sq. mi. of that county you have increased your odds of seeing that buck 2 fold. Then again take into account that if you are chasing a buck of that caliber you likely have some sense of where to find him you can narrow down that sq. milage even more ever increasing your odds.

The difficult part would be to find the buck and then have that area of property he is on accessible to you for hunting. Once you have it though it may only be a couple of hundred acres. Then you can narrow it down further through scouting to get on that buck and get inside his "circle of life." Once you've done that all you have to do is fool the leprechaun on his back and he and the gold are yours.

So King, stop being a whiny sissy boy and get out there and do the work. It's as simple as above.

That's right, I'm coming for the crown baby.;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Isn't all of this a form of mental masturbation?;):D:D:D:D:D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Quicksilver the hunter formly known as "The King":D

Next thing a girl will be out hunting you[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gary, is that out hunting as in hunting better than Fran, or out hunting as in she is out there hunting for Fran?;):D;):D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Mr. Mass just called. He couldn't stop laughing.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I'm slow today, give me time & I might be able to come up with something in excel. ;)

I know this started out funny, but being a numbers geek I would like to go thru my logs and figure out similar %.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I know he has me on speed dial:D
With my luck Dad will take him out with a Ford[8D]

Come on Quick start another thread on why you can't get it done, this is only your tenth[8D]

(I happen to agree with Fran to a point);)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I knew you'd get sucked into this Ryan. It's like crack. Once you start, you can't stop until you've taken the number game all the way to the finish line.

Gary - I'm trying to get all this out of my system before I leave for vaycay. :D By the way: The Ford may be your only chance. [:-][&o][:o]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I've sighted 623 deer in 2.5 seasons.

67 of those deer sightings have been bucks.

Of those.....I've seen exactly ONE 2.5yr old in '05,TWO 2.5 yr old in '06 and ZERO 2.5 yr olds in '07.

I saw ZERO 3.5 yr olds in '05. I saw TWO 3.5 yr olds in '06 and ZERO 3.5 yr olds in '07.

I saw ZERO 4.5 yr olds in '05. I saw ZERO 4.5 yr olds in '06 and ONE 4.5 yr old in '07 (he's one of the 2.5's from '05 and one of the 3.5's from '06).

You do THAT math and tell me what MY odds are;). I'm all too familiar with them.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I went and watch a deaf andblind kid with a some mental problems play Mozart on a piano, what are the odds?
What are the odds of Little school from NC beating big bad MI?


The point I agree with you and Fran is it extremly tough, I am not going to use the "odds" as to why it does not happen;) BTW I am pretty much the same boat these days:) I like that it's tough, I like that it's hard, I like that fact I got my butt kicked last year;)

Why I will never make a post as to why it did not happen, and why I will never make a post as to why guys in states with better odds get it done. I plain and simple don't care what others guys do in Iowa, ILL[8D] What Gregh or anyone kills does not affect the way I hunt, does make what I kill better or worst than him or anyone else.

This year I am dealing with

Mother going nuts
Grandfather who is failing
Two Kids who are busy than hell
A wife who will be changing schools
A daughter who is changing schools

I wonder what my odds are? I don't care, it's not about odds, size or anything else. All I know is I will be giving it 110% and having fun:)

And that is Gospel[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Preach It Brotha!!!

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Have you ever heard me complain, Gary??;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gary - I think you're getting the wrong impression about where I'm going with this. I'm definitely not making excuses as to why I'm not getting it done. Honestly, I think I AM getting it done. Hell, I've killed a pretty decent buck for my area, something like 6 years running. 14 years in a row filling my buck tags... You'll never hear me make an excuse. (2-time world champion :D)

But the point that I'm trying to make here is that we have to set a reasonable bar for ourselves, if we want to be able to shoot a good deer, and actually have a realistic chance of success - it's all about tempering your expectations.

If you soak in enough time and keep a reliable log - you'll start seeing identifiable patterns. Those patterns will change between locations, they'll change during the rut, they'll change over the summer. . .

The moral of the story is having the confidence that "this may be my last best chance" and taking it. You don't want to let opportunity walk away, and regret it thereafter. Likewise, you don't want to shut your season down too early, when you stand a high statistical chance of greater success - later.

Huntingis a game of skill, time, and chance. You can move around from spot-to-spot, trying to enhance your odds through woodsmanship and cunning. You can manipulate your vacation time (based on your statistical records) to enhance your odds. But at the end of the day, you're still trying to maximize your efforts and take the best deer that you're going to have an opportunity to take.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Than for the love of God stop starting post[8D]and just hunt;)

To me it's neither;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gospel.

When we throw in the "Adder" that we alsostart out with the mindset that we're not going tosettle for anything less than our "standards" will allow......then we either choose to lower our standards or eat our tag. I've got no issues with either approach.....as I think they're both personal decisions.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Fran, in all seriousness, I think most of us know, and you and I especially, that the chances of finding, getting permission to hunt, and legally bagging a5.5 year old deer in PA with a bowprobably rank up there in odds of winning the lottery. That's PowerBall, not the PA lottery too.

Sure there are some out there, but the accessibility and likelihood that a buck of that age would spend any time on his feet during daylight hours are very remote. Bucks of that age do get shot here. Generally by a gun hunter after being pushed from one super reclusive hiding spot and heading to another.

Anomolies do happen, but I'm not holding my breath on those and will continue to hunt the deer that I scout, see, and know exist.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gary....until you've experienced the NW NC rut in my woods.....you just can't appreciate the astronomical odds of targeting mature bucks, here.

More than once, last season.....I caught does chasing bucks. Our nannies are easy.....and the boys get their pick. It would be the equivalent to Jessica Alba chasing Lyle Lovett around with a mattress on her backand a handful of prophylactics.

I saw one with an "Ugly does need lovin', too" sticker on her ass......and she was walking bowlegged. Bucks here clean their tarsals daily so as not to give off the wrong signals.

My mature bucks are "pimpin"....and rumor has it all the little hottie does are eatin' buffet style deer chow over at the dumper's shack. An arrow is much more palatable than "death by boinkin'" to these guys....but the girls have my stands surrounded, it seems.

You need to come down and see this place.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Fran has a better chance of a 200'' than me hunting in NC[8D]

I am Northen Boy

I plan on spending my time here along Ausable River;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

NC didn't do so bad in the Summer issue of my P&Y newsletter ;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

That's like watching girls gone wild and saying the college boys at army have it made.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Just something I noticed while looking thru the entries.... I saw NC a lot more than you would lead us to believe. ;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Better than Alcona County in MI:D
For some strange reason, maybe it's my age. I want to head back to the big woods of Northen MI.

I found a shed that is 1 in a million must would say, I don't really care. I want to hunt that big SOB;) Time is my only issue[:@]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Ghost deer buckeye.;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Scott:

It's like going fishing in the lower Mississippi and catching a shark. It's SO MUCH of a big deal, here....that I'm sure most are measured and entered.

Can we say that for the big buck states.....where a qualifier is more prevailant?

You want to cite the "location" threads (although you start those, yourself, also;)) as "us" somehow diminishing others accomplishments.

What's your point with the above statement? Exactly?

A hunter in OH .......telling me how many big bucks we have, here........:D

Go back and start at the beginning of this thread .....then come back. You can figure my odds from the data I provided. In fact.....use the stats from the horn playboy......and we'll use those.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I just checked out my news letter as well buckeye. I counted more then i expected to as well.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

[quote]ORIGINAL: GMMAT

Scott:

It's like going fishing in the lower Mississippi and catching a shark. It's SO MUCH of a big deal, here....that I'm sure most are measured and entered.

Can we say that for the big buck states.....where a qualifier is more prevailant?

Have to agree with you there GMMAT, I know of several that were taken around my hometown in IL last year that were not entered. I would venture to guess that most of them taken in the area are never entered.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Take 2 deep breaths Mr. Defensive... My post was directed towardsGary.....I never told you anything in that post, let alone how many big bucks you have there..

I did in fact tell Gary about a few you used to have walking around NC though;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I hear ya Scott. Whitetail Freaks is HOUNDING me about wanting to come here and shoot a season's footage.

The difference between me and a lot of hunters (it seems) is I just don't care enough about shooting "big bucks" to travel to do so. I'll take the best of what my woods has to offer and be fine with that.

The ONLY things standing between me and a NORTH CAROLINA P&Y buck is likely 2 seasons, countless road hours going 4 hours one-way....and about $2,500.

Yeah....I said it.

I JUST got back from getting a haircut. My barber's an avid deer hunter....so (him knowing me) I posed this question to him.....

What would it take for me to kill a P&Y qualifying buck in NC. Open ended.....just like that. He cited the above criteria.....knowing how much time I have to devote to it.

As hard as it is for some to believe......it's just not that important, to me. I LIKE my location!:) People who don't (or don't like their chances at the caliber deer they're after).....travel hours to hunt.....even cross state lines.

I don't set, as a barometer of my hunting prowess.....the number of inches of antler the deer I kill have. If I did.....I'd pony up and pay the piper....and the gas man.

No interest. None, at all.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Jeff

Was it a good haircut?