RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Ryan - I'd have to say that those numbers would pretty adequately describe what I see on an annual basis.

Rybo brings up a great point - let's see how YOU can apply this math to YOUR hunting area. This is where record-keeping comes in handy.

Step 4. Assessing Your Odds.

In 3 years,my logs show that I've seen97bucks from the stand (with about a 2:1 Doe-to-Buck ratio. Of those bucks,77 1.5's, 17 2.5's, and 3 3.5's (by my best guess).

So, MY numbers would be:
[ul][*]4.5 yearling bucks per 2.5[*]5.7 2.5's per 3.5[*](extrapolating) 5.7 3.5's per 4.5[*](extrapolating again) 5.7 4.5's per 5.5.[/ul]
So, in MY area (based upon3 years ofrecords)-
[ul][*]For every 2.5, there's 4.5 yearlings.[*]For every 3.5, there's 5.7 2.5's and 25.65 yearling bucks.[*]For every 4.5, there's 5.7 3.5's, 32 2.5's, and 115 yearlings.[*]For every 5.5, there's 5.7 4.5's, 32 3.5's, 182 2.5's, and 517 yearlings.[/ul]
So, while you WANT your population pyramid to look like this:


Mine looks like this:


Which sucks.


So, what the hell does all this mean?

If my numerical interpretations are right: That means that I'll have one 5.5 year old buck for every 737 Antlered Deer. If I have a 2:1 B-D ratio, that's 1 5.5 year-old buck in every 2211 whitetail deer.

1 5.5 year old buck per 2211 deer.

If you presume 20 DPSM, that's 1 5.5 buck in every 110 square miles. If your average township/boro is 35 square miles - that means there's ONE 5.5 per every 3 townships. Ballpark.


So what's realistic for YOU?

If I see a deer, here are my percentages:
[ul][*].05% that it will be a 5.5 year old buck[*].26% that it will be a 4.5 year old buck[*]1.4% that it will be a 3.5 year old buck[*]8.2% that it will be a 2.5 year old buck[*]23.4% that it will be a yearling buck[*]67% that it will be a doe. [/ul]


On average, I see about 100 deer per year from the stand in archery season.These numbers are telling me that I willlikely see 1.71 3.5 year old+ deer per year. No guarantee that they're in-range. Just a visual. That's one chance, maybe two, on a deer that's most-likely going to be 3.5 years old.

Those numbers are spot-on, as they relate to my real-world results.




So has anyone else sat down and came up with their own ratios?

If anyone is feeling REALLY ambitious, they could do us all a favor and make an online calculator.

PA guys - do you think my numbers are close to, or mirror yours? Or do you think I'm off-base?

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

While the King's numbers are compelling, the acrage and milage listed does not take into account whitetail habitat. So, if the amount of milage in a county is 1000 sq. mi., but the number of sq. mi. of whitetail habitat is say 500 sq. mi. of that county you have increased your odds of seeing that buck 2 fold. Then again take into account that if you are chasing a buck of that caliber you likely have some sense of where to find him you can narrow down that sq. milage even more ever increasing your odds.

The difficult part would be to find the buck and then have that area of property he is on accessible to you for hunting. Once you have it though it may only be a couple of hundred acres. Then you can narrow it down further through scouting to get on that buck and get inside his "circle of life." Once you've done that all you have to do is fool the leprechaun on his back and he and the gold are yours.

So King, stop being a whiny sissy boy and get out there and do the work. It's as simple as above.

That's right, I'm coming for the crown baby.;)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Isn't all of this a form of mental masturbation?;):D:D:D:D:D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Quicksilver the hunter formly known as "The King":D

Next thing a girl will be out hunting you[8D]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Gary, is that out hunting as in hunting better than Fran, or out hunting as in she is out there hunting for Fran?;):D;):D

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

Mr. Mass just called. He couldn't stop laughing.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I'm slow today, give me time & I might be able to come up with something in excel. ;)

I know this started out funny, but being a numbers geek I would like to go thru my logs and figure out similar %.

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I know he has me on speed dial:D
With my luck Dad will take him out with a Ford[8D]

Come on Quick start another thread on why you can't get it done, this is only your tenth[8D]

(I happen to agree with Fran to a point);)

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I knew you'd get sucked into this Ryan. It's like crack. Once you start, you can't stop until you've taken the number game all the way to the finish line.

Gary - I'm trying to get all this out of my system before I leave for vaycay. :D By the way: The Ford may be your only chance. [:-][&o][:o]

RE: Hunt By Numbers.
 

I've sighted 623 deer in 2.5 seasons.

67 of those deer sightings have been bucks.

Of those.....I've seen exactly ONE 2.5yr old in '05,TWO 2.5 yr old in '06 and ZERO 2.5 yr olds in '07.

I saw ZERO 3.5 yr olds in '05. I saw TWO 3.5 yr olds in '06 and ZERO 3.5 yr olds in '07.

I saw ZERO 4.5 yr olds in '05. I saw ZERO 4.5 yr olds in '06 and ONE 4.5 yr old in '07 (he's one of the 2.5's from '05 and one of the 3.5's from '06).

You do THAT math and tell me what MY odds are;). I'm all too familiar with them.