Just curious what others thought their odds on getting a buck this year are. I honestly don't see myself getting one this year. I sort of feel like I have used up my luck the last 2 seasons by taking 3 species of P&Y animals. I will not shoot a buck under 3.5 years old and that obviously greatly reduces the odds as well, but the fact that I might/probably will not get one makes it more rewarding when I do. I also just won't have near the time that I normally do to hunt the rut this year. So, all in all I think I just may be up a creek, but only time will tell. I do think that my chances of getting a doe or two are about as close to 100% as possible and I enjoy getting them as well so it will still be a good whitetail season I think.

Anyone feeling lucky??? Anyone feel like their getting the big one this year?

As long as yor standards remain unchanged the odds are thesame every year. The variables are : 1) Are there bucks this size where you hunt, 2)Will you be hunting on the days those bucks present a shot? 3)Will you hunt more days or less?

An analogy would be a woman who has given birth to 5 girls, and is pregnant again,What are the odds that it will be a boy? It's the same every time 50/50.

You really don't think you've used up your buck luck do you? If you hunt hard and there are bucks in the area you will get one!

GREAT question, Huntingson.....in that it makes us look at our season, early.

I'm "likely" in a "similar" situation as you (i.e. probably won't take a buck)...but my sitution and criteria are, naturally, different than yours. I have my eye on a particular buck. If I can take him....any time during the season.....I will. If not....like you...it'll need to be a 3.5yr old or older (the buck I'm after will be AT LEAST a 4.5 yr old). There was a nice 2.5 yr old 4x2 with a messed up left side last year that I passed on ...on 2 occasions (I'd already taken a 2.5 yr old). If I see him, this year, I "might" take him. Otherwise.....everything I saw was 1.5 yr olds, last season. I had trail cam photos of other, older deer.....but never saw them during the season. If I see one of them.....who knows?

Does? If I'm still here during hunting season I'd say there's about 100% chance of me taking several does. I would like to take at least 5-6. I need to take more (Rob.....anyone????).

So far....in my turkey hunting....I've seen several deer. I'm looking forward to this season with great anticipation. I also plan to hunt LESS (times)......but be LESS selective in my hunts (I'm doe hunting, first and foremost).

I know that there are going to be some really nice bucks roaming around this year, barring any run ins with cars, etc, because we have pics of them after the season was over. However, I am a firm believer that luck evens out over time. Since I have had a run of good luck, it is just time for some not so good luck. My dad, for instance, hunted over 70 times last year and only saw 1 good buck. I hunted 20 times, saw 3 good ones and got one of them. That is just luck seeing as how we hunt the exact same areas and even out of the same trees. So, he is due to get one which actually is just as exciting for me as me getting one.

Thanks to my teammate and friend FSHAFLY2 you can easily see your chances based on last years contest.

His great follow-up is linked below

http://www.huntingnet.com/forum/tm.aspx?m=2002676&mpage=1

My odds on seeing a shooter buck got to be pretty much a 100%, but getting him close enough for a shot, 60% and harvesting, 70%. I will take a quality buck 2.5 and older.

I think you increase your odds by diligent scouting and doing your homework - I have take nice 2.5 to 3.5 year old bucks within the first week of archery season the last 3 years - I put it just as much time scouting as I did hunting and have seen my mature buck sighting double

Those were some very insteresting stats, but I guess my question is more about how you feel you are going to do. Not necessarily what the actual odds are.

My odds on killing a buck in bow season are probably close to 1:1. I'm sure that I won't eat tag soup, but the real question is how big? I had four really good buck years in a row, but the past two have been duds and I settled for small-basket 4x4's, and blew my chances on the big dogs.

As much as I hunt and with the properties i hunt there is no doubt in my mind that i will get a buck next year. It would be a very bad year if i didnt.

If we are running on luck, im sure to run out soon!