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Odds of success

Old 11-20-2006, 09:43 PM
  #1  
EKM
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Default Odds of success

Colorado,2005 hunting season stats from CDOW...

-Pronghorn -78% success: over 3 out of 4 succeed
- Deer - 45% success: less than half
- Elk - 23% success: under 1 out of 4 succeed

Thoughts?
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Old 11-21-2006, 06:32 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

Well, I think I'll go to Wyoming if I ever want to hunt elk, and Wyoming has better lope herds, and a man could travel to Nebraska for whitetail hunting, the whitetails in Nebraska are great this decade! It used to be turkeys 20 years ago,my dad tells me, and it'll probably be lopes that flourish next decade.
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Old 11-21-2006, 06:53 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

My thoughts are that I am surprised that antelope success isn't higher, mule deer success seems about right, and the elk success, or the lack there of, doesn't surprise me because there's only about 10% of hunters that really get into where they need to, to be successful.

Are those success numbers including archery, black powder, and rifle?
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Old 11-21-2006, 07:01 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

YoungGun,

You personify the old adage: "It is better to remain unheard and perceived a fool, than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

My thoughts:

I say that its all bunk! Your odds are 50/50 on everything....either you're going to get one or not, 50/50 [8D]

Percentage numbers skew things a lot. Take percentages in my home state for Whitetail. They'll say something like 50% succes rate on deer. Well, I am one of those who didn't fill a tag so I'm lowering the number right? What about the three bucks that I passed up, or the dozen does? The bucks were all 4 x 4 's or better in the 120+ range. I certainly could have killed one of those and increased the averages.
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Old 11-21-2006, 07:50 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

ORIGINAL: ShatoDavis

YoungGun,

You personify the old adage: "It is better to remain unheard and perceived a fool, than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."
So, my lack of knowledge on this subject automatically makes me a fool,eh?
You can't find the enemy untill you jump out of the trench and attract his fire, then when he does, he gives up alot of knowledge, that's my system, not that anyone here is the enemy.
I make an assumption, then, if I'm wrong, than people correct me, if I'm right, then people ignore my comment.

So thank you,Shato, for complying, and showing the error of my ways!
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:02 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

YoungGun,

You can take at as a insult if you want. I call em as I see em. Just so you know my father and grandfather said this line to me several hundred times in my developing years. I use this line on my son quite a bit. Its not intended to hurt ones feelings. Its just supposed to show that running off at the mouth about things that you really don't have knowledge of is detrimental. Say tommorrow someone asks a question that you have knowledge of well we won't give your answer very much value because you have lost credability by spouting on other subjects that you really had no knowledge. See my point.

What you said about Nebraska really made no sense. Maybe you can explain your theory further, as it pertains to original subject of harvest percentages.
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:08 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

wow i thought the elk percent was like 35
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:11 AM
  #8  
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Default RE: Odds of success

"....wow i thought the elk percent was like 35...."
Perhaps,
For rifle hunting,
In the best year on record.

The hunting is so different from the whitetail "default pratices" that most folks have matured underthat many folks are "doomed from the start."
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:22 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

ORIGINAL: EKM


The hunting is so different from the whitetail "default" that most folks have matured underthat many folks are "doomed from the start."
Many people would be doomed from the start if the Percentages where 80%. I grew up hunting whitetails, Turkeys, rabbits, and squirrels. I've used the knowledge gleamed from those years to harvest elk on multiple occassions. Granted its a whole other ballgame but some skills are definately transferable.

If you do some research, Do some scouting, Draw a decent tag, and have some decent hunting knowledge I honestly believe your chances are 50/50.

Sayyou don't do any research, don't scout, buy a general tag, go to the woods and hope that a stupid one walks by you then I would say that you got a 1 in 10 chance. There is alwaysa guy somewhere that shoots an elk from camp, luck is definately a part of it.
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Old 11-21-2006, 11:12 AM
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Default RE: Odds of success

Those percentages seem about right to me. They actually seem a little higher than Utah. The problem is that average hunter isn't like most of the people on these boards. It seems nearly everyone on this board is in the upper level of hunting enthusists. We are the horseback riding, back country packing, elk and deer quartering, hunting board talking, all year preparing, wild game meat cosuming group.

Around Utah the "average" hunter is a general season rifle hunter. Sadly this hunter usually sites in their rifle the day before the hunt, if at all, and doesn't even think about shooting the rest of the year. This hunter doesn't scout or like to get more thana few hundred yards from the road and that's if they leave their truck or ATV. This hunter usually has ok ethics at best, some of that due to plain ignorance. Others will do anything to get a deer/elk because it's been 10 years since they got their last one. And the only reason is was even theirs was because three people in the group shot at it and that guy won the argument, or simply "hit it first." This hunter is not concerning himself/herself with talking about hunting all year long, like we do. They wouldn't know the difference between a core-lok't and a barnes x. They ask you and I what grain of bullet should they buy to go on their elk hunt because they don't know the first thing.

That is the reason for those "success" numbers. It's not a guy passing up bucks, even though it does technically factor in, or the guy calling in elk within bow range but just can't get a shot. Although we would never have 100% succcess in hunting, your numbers EKM reflect the "lazy" hunter. I bet if we polled the board our success rates would look completely different.
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