RE: Odds of success
Those percentages seem about right to me. They actually seem a little higher than Utah. The problem is that average hunter isn't like most of the people on these boards. It seems nearly everyone on this board is in the upper level of hunting enthusists. We are the horseback riding, back country packing, elk and deer quartering, hunting board talking, all year preparing, wild game meat cosuming group.
Around Utah the "average" hunter is a general season rifle hunter. Sadly this hunter usually sites in their rifle the day before the hunt, if at all, and doesn't even think about shooting the rest of the year. This hunter doesn't scout or like to get more thana few hundred yards from the road and that's if they leave their truck or ATV. This hunter usually has ok ethics at best, some of that due to plain ignorance. Others will do anything to get a deer/elk because it's been 10 years since they got their last one. And the only reason is was even theirs was because three people in the group shot at it and that guy won the argument, or simply "hit it first." This hunter is not concerning himself/herself with talking about hunting all year long, like we do. They wouldn't know the difference between a core-lok't and a barnes x. They ask you and I what grain of bullet should they buy to go on their elk hunt because they don't know the first thing.
That is the reason for those "success" numbers. It's not a guy passing up bucks, even though it does technically factor in, or the guy calling in elk within bow range but just can't get a shot. Although we would never have 100% succcess in hunting, your numbers EKM reflect the "lazy" hunter. I bet if we polled the board our success rates would look completely different.