RE: Nj surf fisherman
Brian, in about three weeks, after a couple cool nights in a row, the mullet are gonna start pouring out of the backbays and rivers, followed by the other bait. That's when it starts, but any time after that could find big fish coming through. The weeks leading up to Thanksgiving are the best time for the cows, with many considering the Thanksgiving weekend the best possible days of the year to fish.
I'd say the first cows start showing in mid Oct in any numbers, but Nov is when the bulk of them pass by. Weather is too iffy in the fall to predict it down to a couple weeks, the direction of the wind determines if the bait gets blown off shore, or blown tight to the beach. No matter where the bulf of the big fish are, you'll CATCH the most during and after a good east wind, or God willing, a good late-October Nor'easter. It's all about the wind and the water temps.
A week of cooler than avg temps and East wind is the ticket during Oct and Nov.
"In heaven, even the fish have antlers"