I notice near point #2 that the slope and gully come together. That may work as a natural funnel down into the trough.

That trough itself reminds me of a place I hunt. The trough forms a natural travel route, deer using it able to access the fields to the north at night (your #3), then using it to return to bed on the adjacent slopes or continuing along it to the SE where your photograph ends.

I see a gully near the lake and a slope just north of it. That may make for a natural funnel, especially if the slope is steep.

That thicket near the gully looks like a potential staging area. I could see a buck bedding on the slope where you placed your stand at #1, slipping down into the thicket to stage and sip a little water, then running the trough up into the northern fields between #3 and #4, or maybe even slipping past #2 on your map.

If you posted up at #2, you could keep an eye on that thicket and trough, and also watch for a deer sipping northward along the gully to the east of #2.