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Old 03-16-2015, 10:07 AM
  #7  
bald9eagle
Typical Buck
 
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Hatton, Alabama
Posts: 520
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I'm not so sure its a coyote problem. I think weather is a bigger issue.

I have this theory. I believe that (although day length is the catalyst for the breeding season) that ambient temperature and ground temp is a prerequsite for hens to nest.
In 2012 it was warm and dry in Feb. There were several reports of peope finding nests in March, which I'm not really accustomed to. Generally in N AL you find nests about the middle of April. In 2013 there were reports of lots of jakes. Most folks said that these were "super jakes". Full gobbles, beards that were longer than an average jake, larger than average spurs. 2014 I heard of more 1.125-1.375 inch spurs than I had ever heard of. I also heard of more 21+ lb birds than I had ever heard of. My belief is that last years big birds were actually 2year old birds that were hatched early in 2012. I also believe that the 2013 breeding season saw more jakes that kept the more mature birds from being able to breed. I think the jakes kept them run off. I'm hearing reports of more jakes this year, though it is early to really know much.

So to break it down....
2012- early hatch
2013 - Lots of big jakes that didn't get the job done breeding and kept mature toms from breeding. Lower than normal hatch.
2014 - big mature birds from 2012 hatch. Good hatch.
2015 - ?? If there are fewer 2 year old birds killed and more jakes seen that would help my theory.
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