My point on "points" is that you don't need them to draw a tag. You can apply for a first rifle season tag that can be had with O points. If for some reason you don't draw, you can get an OTC tag. In addition to the 2nd and 3rd rifle season, most units are OTC for archery. Your odds of getting an elk in the first rifle season would be better than the later seasons.
In fact , if I were you, I would consider putting in for a bull or either sex tag in the drawing as your first choice. Then as a second choice, you could put a cow tag. That way you would get to hunt the first rifle season next year and would be sure to draw the bull tag the year after. Cow tags are $350 and again your chance of success would be higher. Chances are you would get one of those tags. If not, you can still buy an OTC tag.
I have done a number of swap hunts that have worked out well. If you have something to trade, you can find someone who will show you the ropes and get you into a good area in Colorado. Otherwise, you are just taking a shot in the dark for the first year or two until you learn how/where to hunt in a given area.