RE: colorado elk 2008 archery
I'm not sure which GMU they hunt in, but the difference between 1st and 4th is definately the weather. If they hunt at high altitudes then snow may drive them down by 4th season. You should be ok for 1st season. If the snow drives them down to lower altitude then they may be on private property. If you don't have permission to hunt private then you're out of luck.
After going back and reading your first post, I see you're talking archery. Weather will also play a role. If the temps are too hot the first of season then they won't be talking. The rut kicks in about the 3rd week of the season. I go out the first week of Sept. and hear bugles all the time, some guys don't.