I think luck generally plays a big role in someone getting a big deer their first or second season out.

Also throw in where the hunt, the food available to the animals, the local genetics, etc...

Seems to me most are luckier than they are skilled. Granted, this isn't necessarily always the case, but a 9 year old shooting a 180" deer his/her first season out isn't likely to be because they know a lot about the game they're pursuing.

I do agree that more experienced hunters may tend to over-analyze things though.