RE: Which muzzleloader for under $200 for a newb?
There's nothing wrong with a good traditional style gun if you're so inclined. You can shoot the newer BP substitutes if you want to (stay with loose powder, not pellets), and there are lots of all lead bullets to choose from, too. I'd agree with sabotloader concerning the .54 - you'll have a larger chunk of lead going downrange for extra penetration.
Good Luck and have fun.