The rut is dependant on the photoperiod, or the amount of light that reaches a deers eyes. It has nothing to do with the weather.
Exactly!!
It's important not to confuse somerutting activity (scrapes, rubs, bucks chasing "cold" does) etc etc, with actual breeding activity. Just because a buck is chasing a doe around does not mean that he will "score" soon, or that the doe is in estrous. Yes bucks will chase does who are not in full estrous and this usually begins a few weeks prior to the peak breeding season. As a matter of fact, my findings have shown that this early season chasing of a buck on a doe slows down prior to actual breeding periods, when it will pick up again.
Just my two cents!!