You say you hit 2 inches in front of shortdraws shot but you also say you did not see the arrow. If you did not see the arrow you could of hit anywhere on the deer.

Very possible you hit the shoulder blade if you heard a loud Wack. There is a very good possibility the deer is down.

A couple suggestions:

1) As stated before if you are uncertain - WAIT at least 2 hrs. if not more.
2) Leave the dog home. They speed the tracking up way to fast. If the bloodtrail is very small like you stated, the dog can easily destroy it by turning over leaves. The dog obviously is not that good if it only took you 200 yds. You are better off without it.

Good Luck.