Well, I'm not a handloader so I don't have nearly the experience many here have with various specific bullet types, etc., and cannot offer any insight to that part of the discussion.

It sounds like the basic difference in theories 1 and 2 are simply the absence or presence of an exit-wound, respectively.

I'd have to say that what the bullet passes through between the entrance-wound and exit-wound are what is, BY FAR, most critical in determining if it will be an effective shot or not, certainly more than whether or not there is an exit-wound.

The idea is for that bullet to destroy as much tissue, break as many bones, penetrate and prevent internal organ functions, all that fit somewhere in the range between the smallest diameter bullet with the lightest weight with the slowest velocity that's still big enough and the biggest diameter bullet, with the heaviest weight and the fastest velocity that's pracitical enough to kill the thing with.

If you destroy key internal organs (heart, lungs, brain), break bones (especially shoulders, legs, backs, and necks), or cause massive internal bleeding, that deer is going to die whether the bullet exits or not.

An exit wound means more blood on the ground for tracking purposes, but internal bleeding will kill the thing just as fast if the blood isn't in it's intended stream.

I'm for theory Dead.