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Democrat boat sinking?

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Democrat boat sinking?

Old 09-02-2020, 10:24 PM
  #31  
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Didn't all those same polls have Hillary up by 25-35 percent during the 2016 at this point in the campaign ? We all know how that worked out for the Libs ! The Libs even lost the house then too !
I had business to do around Portsmouth NH last weekend which is a democrat stronghold area . I saw well over 100 Trump signs in peoples yards up there , and maybe as many as 150 in all. There was so many I couldn't believe it. You know how many Biden signs ? TWO Biden signs in yards and one Biden bumper sticker.
Two weeks ago I had business to do in central NH around Concord , the capital which is another democrat stronghold. That was even worse. I must of seen 300 Trump signs and flags and ONE Biden sign. I was on vacation for a week at Hampton Beach 3 weeks ago . I went to a couple stores on the boardwalk to get some beach stuff. Kites , and a couple towels. They sell tons of tee shirts there too.. Typical beach shop. They were selling both Trump and Biden tee shirts . I asked the owner which was selling better. 25 Trump shirts to ONE Biden shirt . I think he is going to landslide Biden here . Hillary won NH by 1500 votes.

So the liberal Mayor of Kenosha and the liberal Gov of Wisconsin told Trump that he shouldn't come to Kenosha fearing retaliation riots . Trump went anyway and was met with at least 5 miles long packed full of supporters on both sides of the road waving Trump and American flags along the route from the Airport to his meeting spot with law enforcement authorities . You really believe the polls showing Biden ahead ? Not A Chance ! Biden draws a school bus full of people ( if that many ) when he goes anywhere. I think you are going to be in for a rude awakening

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Old 09-03-2020, 02:30 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville View Post
She got the most votes, didn't she?

It is no surprise you don't understand our voting system. We have a democratic republic, not a democracy. If you don't like it there are trains, planes and ships leaving every day, probably every hour for someplace else in the world.
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Old 09-03-2020, 02:59 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville View Post
She got the most votes, didn't she?
And still lost. Hahahahaha
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Old 09-03-2020, 05:07 AM
  #34  
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I have read that as much as 10% of people don't reveal that they are Trump voters, don't represent in polls that they plan to vote for Trump. I suppose that is NOT a surprise, given the attacks made on Trump supporters. Isn't it the case that Trump supporters have been shot and killed for supporting Trump (Portland recently)? Haven't people who wear Trump hats been physically assaulted in many cities? When was the last time someone wearing a Joe Biden hat was attacked? My niece who lives in Illinois and has a super liberal mother (my sister) and two super liberal aunts who are very close to her is a clandestine Trump supporter. This came as a surprise to me. She owns a small business -- a beauty salon operated in the basement of her house. She is very entrepreneurial, promoting her wares and services through Facebook. I suspect she sees that Trump has been good for her business while Democrats have been bad for her business in various ways. One way Democrats have been bad for her is how Governor Pritzker of Illinois shut down EVERYTHING in Illinois for a long time because of the Coronavirus. The classic "one size fits all" mentality of Democrats contending with the Coronavirus. What works for New York City ought to apply in Podunk; what makes sense in Chicago ought to apply in sparsely populated farming counties of western Illinois. In any case, I bet precious few people know she is a Trump supporter. Her mother and aunts do not know because she doesn't want the ridicule and harassment that she could expect to receive.

This makes me think about something else. It is amazing that Trump is accused by the left of being some sort of totalitarian and/or a Nazi, but in fact it is the left that is acting like Nazis -- beating up people who express support for their political adversaries. Wear a Trump hat, get beaten up. Who is the Nazi here? Does anyone else see parallels between the rioting, looting, arson in our Democrat controlled cities and the Kristallnacht event November 9 and 10, 1938, in Germany. Nazis in Germany torched synagogues and smashed Jewish businesses, homes, schools, and graveyards. This was the launching of a campaign of terror against Jewish people in Germany. I guess a difference is that Kristallnacht only lasted two days -- the rioting and looting in the US has been going on for how long? And Democrats are OK with this.

With reference to Totalitarianism, my understanding of this term is where the government manages and commands all the elements of citizens' lives. Please, someone correct me if I am not understanding "totalitarianism" correctly. But Trump wants people to be free and in fact withdraws regulations that interfere with citizens' freedom. Who is it who wants to make government play a larger role in our lives, to dictate more to us, to curtail our freedoms further? Who uses the government apparatus to intimidate and attack their opponents (hint -- the folks that set up an illegal spying apparatus to spy on the Trump presidential campaign in 2016).

Last edited by Alsatian; 09-03-2020 at 05:20 AM.
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Old 09-03-2020, 12:33 PM
  #35  
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Four years ago today, with respect to the national polls (popular vote), Clinton had about a 2% lead over Trump, never more than 4%.

With respect to electoral votes, four years ago today Trump and Clinton were essentially tied, although state polls had Clinton with around 297EVs, Trump with 197EVs with 40EVs too close to call. Clinton had small leads in many states that that were nonetheless statistically tied, meaning, within the margin of error for either to win. Of the states that were not in play, Clinton had maybe 220 electoral votes, Trump had about 200. So with 270 being the magic number, and 538 total, there were around 118 electoral votes in play. Trump ended up with 304, Clinton got 227. Yes a lot of polling got it “wrong” but in truth they were mostly right, meaning within a 5% margin of error. The odds that all the close ones broke in favor of Trump - that was the surprise.

Now cut to today. Nationally Biden is leading by 8-10%. With respect to electoral votes from the most current polls by state, Biden has around 350EVs, Trump has around 150EVs. I admit that is likely not accurate, Texas, which was polling barely to Biden, is now a tie, and will go to Trump soon enough.

But here is the rub: Peel away all those states that are statistical ties (within 5%) and therefore technically in play, and Biden still has about 275Evs and Trump only about 135EVs. This means to win, Trump needs to make some huge inroads into Blue states. Stated another way, while currently there are more electoral votes in play (say 128) than there were 4 years ago, even if Trump gets them all, it’s not enough.

Something huge would need to happen for Trump to win, like a major mistake by the Biden campaign. If I was him I would stay in my basement too.

Now I know the above is based on polling, not “word on the street,” but remember, the 2016 polls were not that wrong.
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Old 09-03-2020, 12:41 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by hubby11 View Post
Four years ago today, with respect to the national polls (popular vote), Clinton had about a 2% lead over Trump, never more than 4%.

With respect to electoral votes, four years ago today Trump and Clinton were essentially tied, although state polls had Clinton with around 297EVs, Trump with 197EVs with 40EVs too close to call. Clinton had small leads in many states that that were nonetheless statistically tied, meaning, within the margin of error for either to win. Of the states that were not in play, Clinton had maybe 220 electoral votes, Trump had about 200. So with 270 being the magic number, and 538 total, there were around 118 electoral votes in play. Trump ended up with 304, Clinton got 227. Yes a lot of polling got it “wrong” but in truth they were mostly right, meaning within a 5% margin of error. The odds that all the close ones broke in favor of Trump - that was the surprise.

Now cut to today. Nationally Biden is leading by 8-10%. With respect to electoral votes from the most current polls by state, Biden has around 350EVs, Trump has around 150EVs. I admit that is likely not accurate, Texas, which was polling barely to Biden, is now a tie, and will go to Trump soon enough.

But here is the rub: Peel away all those states that are statistical ties (within 5%) and therefore technically in play, and Biden still has about 275Evs and Trump only about 135EVs. This means to win, Trump needs to make some huge inroads into Blue states. Stated another way, while currently there are more electoral votes in play (say 128) than there were 4 years ago, even if Trump gets them all, it’s not enough.

Something huge would need to happen for Trump to win, like a major mistake by the Biden campaign. If I was him I would stay in my basement too.

Now I know the above is based on polling, not “word on the street,” but remember, the 2016 polls were not that wrong.

There already is a mistake in the Biden Camp, a huge one, actually two mistakes and their names ares Joe Biden and Kamala Harris!
!!!
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Old 09-03-2020, 06:37 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Alsatian View Post
Have the Democrats knocked a hole in the bottom of their boat and initiated a rapid sinking of their whole party?

The Democrats have really gotten their response to the violent rioting, looting, arson, and shooting wrong. And they have gotten it wrong for 2.5 months. They are trying now to blame it on Trump, but that isn't going to work. It is too transparent. Worse, they are continuing in many venues to enable and encourage the violence. They evidently haven't read the memo that NO ONE LIKES BURNING, LOOTING, and PHYSICAL ATTACKS!!!! I have seen where a number of Minnesota Democrat mayors have officially endorsed Donald Trump for president. They have painted themselves into a corner on this thing, and I don't see them getting out of it. Deflecting blame onto Trump isn't going to work -- it is just going to deepen their problem.

Here is one problem I believe I am seeing. Once the Democrat voter has the light turned on and sees the BS of his or her party leaders supporting and enabling anarchy, violence, looting, and arson . . . that isn't the only thing that is exposed by the light that got turned on. They start to see the lies and bias of the news media and lose trust and confidence in the news media. They start to see the manipulation of the COVID-19 problem. They start to see their leaders dragging them into a socialism that they do not want. They start to see the lies about Joe Biden being healthy. They start to see that Joe Biden has really not accomplished a damned thing in his life and has gotten a lot of things wrong. To summarize . . . when the light bulb goes on in the political world of the democrat voter it isn't JUST the abysmal approach to handling riots used by Democrat leaders that those democrat voters see.

At this point I think the presidential election is well sown up by Trump. And Democrats and Democrat sympathizers -- Antifa and BLM -- continue to give the Democrat brand a black eye and degrade their appeal and lift Trump up in the process. But it doesn't stop there. This is ALSO going to improve the election prospects of Republicans in the US house, in the US Senate, in state governorships, in state legislative campaigns. The WHOLE Democrat party has been tarred with this incompetent response to riots.

Am I reading the tea leaves right? What is your opinion.
You asked for my opinion.. Laugh at it may make you feel stronger or feel like a Bad Ass.. Doesn't mater to me.. Can care less how you feel to agree or disagree on my view about it.. You want my opinion I'll tell it and walk away..

...Deleted by CalHunter...


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Last edited by CalHunter; 09-07-2020 at 12:48 PM. Reason: Rules 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 & 12--1 week ban.
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Old 09-03-2020, 07:16 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Beau Ouiville View Post
Fox News says this:
"Democrat Joe Biden is ahead in three key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016, according to new Fox News statewide surveys of Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Support for reelecting Trump falls below his 2016 vote share in each state. At the same time, there’s room for improvement, as more voters approve of his job performance than back his reelection.Biden’s advantage comes from strong support among women and suburban voters. Moreover, suburban women in all three states trust Biden over Trump to handle coronavirus and policing/criminal justice."

https://www.foxnews.com/official-pol...-in-key-states





Just never mind.
I will ask only 1 more time. ...Deleted by CalHunter...
We do not now nor have we ever used the popular vote for Presidents.
So, I will reiterate. NO, she did NOT get the most votes.

Last edited by CalHunter; 09-07-2020 at 12:50 PM. Reason: Rule # 2--Warning.
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Old 09-03-2020, 10:02 PM
  #39  
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Why argue? He likes to complain. That's what people who lose do. He knows how the EC works and if he bothered to read aftermath reports after election day in 2016, he would have seen why Hillary lost. It's eerily similar for Biden in 2020.
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Old 09-04-2020, 07:24 AM
  #40  
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Someone missed the point. I said that MANY examples in modern electoral politics are available where the polls were OUTSIDE of the boundaries of error (usually +/- 3%) and ALWAYS in the direction considered to be favourable to liberals/leftists. The Trump/Hillary election in 2016 is one such example. The Brexit/Remain election in UK was another such example. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Boris Johnson election in UK was another such example. I wonder how many other example of this error of polls to accurately project an election are known?

The point is that the "error" is ALWAYS in one specific direction. The only reasonable conclusion from this is that the polls are deliberately, knowingly, disingenuously canted to promote the leftist cause.

My position above is not fool-proof. My position is not necessarily correct. If there is a balance of errors -- errors in a major, bellwether election first on one side and then errors in another bellwether election on the opposite side -- then my position could be attacked. But I'm not hearing about when the error predicted Obama would lose to John McCain by 1% but instead Obama won by 1%. You get the picture.

The errors between polls and the electoral results are always to one side, and that means the polls are consistently canted 5% in the wrong direction. Take it to the bank.

By the way, just to clarify. On any given poll the margins of error may be +/- 3%. But if you look at 20 polls and all of them show 2.5% error on the SAME side . . . that isn't a margin of error phenomenon. Over a number of fair polls, while a +/- 3% error may apply to each poll, the average error should approach 0% if the polls are fair, i.e., are not canted.

The average of 4 polls with errors of +3%, -3%, +1%, -2% is -0.25%. The error, while significant in any single poll should tend towards a very low average. That ain't what's happenin folks. As Joe Biden would say "C'mon man!!!! That ain't right!"

Last edited by Alsatian; 09-04-2020 at 07:29 AM.
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