Who Can WE Believe
07-14-2005 | 05:00 PM
#1
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 232
Likes: 0
Who Can WE Believe
When the new campaign to reduce was started ,we were told that the herd increased by 20% from 1998 to 2000 and that the herd was 50% above the goal of 21 DPSM. The following quote from Cal Dubrock states that the herd was 48% above the goal in 1997 ,so a 20% increase would mean the herd was 68% above it's goal in 2000 not ,50% as claimed by the PGC.
Going into the 1997 season, the population was 48% above goal. In response to a dissatisfied segment of the hunting public, the Commission substantially reduced antlerless license allocations. The wildlife management staff calculated that over 800,000 licenses needed to be allocated just to hold the population steady. The approved allocation was only 639,000 licenses. Another important thing happened in ’97: the agency eliminated bonus licenses. Only 595,000 were used.
What impact might this type of change have on the deer population and future antlerless license allocations? Here’s a quick example of how the antlerless management program works. If you want to kill 5,000 deer using an antlerless allocation system, you need to know hunter success rate. In Pennsylvania, on average, it takes about three permits issued to have a deer harvested. (Actually the rate varies from about 2 to 12, depending on the management unit.) In this example, you would need 15,000 antlerless licenses to harvest 5,000 deer. What happens if you don’t get that, say if you only sell 12,000 licenses? Well, you have 3,000 surplus licenses left. If you’re not issuing unsold licenses, you’re going to leave 1,000 more deer in the field. What happens then? The following year, those deer are going to reproduce. Those deer are going to add 1,600 deer to the population. You’re going to need 4,800 more permits to harvest those additional deer, just to stabilize the population. So, from one year to the next, where you needed 15,000, as a result of under harvesting antlerless deer in one year, the next year you are going to need 19,800 antlerless permits – just to stabilize the population. This is a feed-forward system! It doesn’t get easier, it gets more difficult as time goes on. If you cannot move toward goal; if you cannot keep the population stable, it’s going to grow.
So what happened in 1997? We expected a statewide deer population increase. We had excellent weather. We were fooled. Success rates increased! We experienced a 38% increase in permit efficiency - the highest success rates ever. Deer populations stayed stable statewide; population reductions occurred in some management units and some increased.
What impact might this type of change have on the deer population and future antlerless license allocations? Here’s a quick example of how the antlerless management program works. If you want to kill 5,000 deer using an antlerless allocation system, you need to know hunter success rate. In Pennsylvania, on average, it takes about three permits issued to have a deer harvested. (Actually the rate varies from about 2 to 12, depending on the management unit.) In this example, you would need 15,000 antlerless licenses to harvest 5,000 deer. What happens if you don’t get that, say if you only sell 12,000 licenses? Well, you have 3,000 surplus licenses left. If you’re not issuing unsold licenses, you’re going to leave 1,000 more deer in the field. What happens then? The following year, those deer are going to reproduce. Those deer are going to add 1,600 deer to the population. You’re going to need 4,800 more permits to harvest those additional deer, just to stabilize the population. So, from one year to the next, where you needed 15,000, as a result of under harvesting antlerless deer in one year, the next year you are going to need 19,800 antlerless permits – just to stabilize the population. This is a feed-forward system! It doesn’t get easier, it gets more difficult as time goes on. If you cannot move toward goal; if you cannot keep the population stable, it’s going to grow.
So what happened in 1997? We expected a statewide deer population increase. We had excellent weather. We were fooled. Success rates increased! We experienced a 38% increase in permit efficiency - the highest success rates ever. Deer populations stayed stable statewide; population reductions occurred in some management units and some increased.
07-14-2005 | 06:18 PM
#3
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 232
Likes: 0
RE: Who Can WE Believe
Is there a law against beating a dead horse? Did you know the PGC lied about the 20% increase between 1998 and 2000 ,before I posted this quote? If you didn't , then I am not beating a dead horse , but instead I am revealing a major misrepresentation of the facts that has never been presented before.
If you disagree ,please provide the appropriate documentation to support your position.
If you disagree ,please provide the appropriate documentation to support your position.
07-14-2005 | 07:09 PM
#4
Nontypical Buck
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,776
Likes: 0
From: Slower Lower Delaware 1st State
RE: Who Can WE Believe
This Horse(Topic)is dead!
Here is the "appropriate" documentation
Keep Gazing at this one for a short while cuz this is what will happen to any topic that rehashes or duplicates in any way these long lost and debated issues that clutter this forum.
Here is the "appropriate" documentation
Keep Gazing at this one for a short while cuz this is what will happen to any topic that rehashes or duplicates in any way these long lost and debated issues that clutter this forum.
