We simply can't produce enough corn to make ethanol any sort of primary fuel. Right now production capacity is through the roof, but everything will level out. Ultimately the price of oil is going to determine the price of corn (indirectly) and thus will determine the incentive scheme that farmers will use to determine whether or not to re-enroll in CRP. Also, it is important to remember that Congress will be working on a new Farm Bill this year. With Democrats in control, I'd say it is highly likely that more money will be spent on conservation programs. Bush/USDA has proposed its own version of the farm bill with increased spending on conservation as well.

Someone already mentioned it, but farming is not going to be the downfall of wildlife populations and hunting. Development and increasing populations are more likely to hinder our opportunities as sportsmen.

Well, when you also factor in other crops like sugar cane that can be used to make bio-fuel, we can make a pretty good run at making ourselves much less dependent on oil imports. I can live with that.

We could use other sources to produce more ethanol. But we produce a heck of a lot more corn than we do sugar and we can't import sugar efficiently because of trade barriers. Everything from corn stalks to switchgrass can be used for celluloisic ethanol, but I think the technology for making that conversion is lagging.

And lets not forget, the same government that is making the CRP payment is also paying the subsidies/providing tax credits that make producers think about not enrolling in CRP. Seems sort of counter-productive, doesn't it? If they didn't cause the run-up in corn prices, they could make cheaper CRP payments to eligible producers. Instead they pay on both ends.

Lot's of kinks to work out. But it is interesting to consider that a few years ago a lot of people were laughing at the notion of bio-fuels. But its becoming more and more of a reality.

I read that on a research farmit was demonstrated that switchgrass can yield about 1000 gal. of ethonal per acre per year. So, maybe someday farmers will be strip farming corn and switchgrass, and the small game critters will all be happy!
Seems we are making strides toward using Bio-fuels/ethonal, but we got a long ways to go!

I attend the University of Northwestern Ohio. We have a program totally comitted to alternative fuels.As promising as these fuels are, there are some real shortcomings. Here are a few of the facts I have learned.

1 Current consumption of gasoline = 146 - 150 billion gallons ofgasoline
produced a year.

2. Currently we produce about 4 billion gallons of ethanol, increases to
about 8 billion gallons in 2012.

3.Our fuel usageincreases about 5% every year, give or take 1%

4. Ethanol is sometimes more expensive than straight gasoline.

5. Ethanol produces 30% less energy than gasoline.

So,in 2012, our production of ethanol will be 8 billion gallons, and our gas
consumption will increase to about 195 billion gallons. If my math is correct, that is slightly over 4%of consumption. If we stay on that track of consumption and production, we will not even see a difference of how much oil we use, and probably a increase. The fact that ethanol is less efficient also take a huge toll. 8 billion gallons translates to = 5.6 billion gallons of gasoline, or roughly 3% of expected consumption.

IMHO, we need to find a cost effective way to use hydrogen.

Fox,

I think that predictions over only the next 5 years loses sight of the fact that our current ethanol production and technology is rudimentary compared to what it will be like in, say, 50 years. Are there any models that try to estimate long-term trends and that factor in potential improvements in technology thru time? In the meantime, I would be happy to be even 3 percent less dependent on OPEC. Hydrogen sounds good too if they can make it work.

Lanse,

The problem I am encountering with researching ethanol is sifting through all of the information that is out there and trying to tell which facts are not special interest driven. Those numbers will change some based on increased production effeciency. There arecurrently about 100 ethanol plants with that increasing say 75 to 100% in 2012. Maybe more. Thereare just too many variables and too many conflicting statistics.

IMHO, the real gains are to be made in fuel efficiency,public transportation improvements, viable/cost effective hydrogen production, affordable hybrid technology. Jamie

I guess were all just screwed then.Damned if ya do and damned if ya dont.

well i wouldn't worry about this to much these farmers that turn this CRP back to cropland will spend out their behind to get all the invasive plants out. the seeds were dropped last fall on the CRP land so it will be weedy for years to come. all the costs involved will not turn a profit on that ground for several years that is if corn stays up. It has been said that corn is so high right now because oil companies are buying up corn to break down these ethanol companies. once the ethanol plants go bankrupt the oil companies buy them back for pennies on the dollar and make a profit for themselves not the farmers.
corn is not going to be $4.00 next fall it will probably drop down to 3.50 so there will not be as much profit for these farmers.