HANKFAN

First off let me say the first time I saw Alsheimer's rut predicitions 4 years ago in Deer & Deer Hunting I was like yeah right. Well I must admit that for the last 4 seasons he has been dead on the money in my area.

So on to the Rut predicitons for 2004. He predicts a very early rut due to the 2nd harvest moon occuring on October 28th. Here is his predicitons according to the 2004 Whitetail Calendar:

Seeking Phase: October 25th- October 31st

Chasing Phase: November 1st- November 8th

Breeding Phase: November 9th- November 16th

This is the earliest that I have ever seen him predict for the rut to start and end. So I guess we will have to wait until next season to see how his predicitons play out. This really though makes me wonder when would be the best time for me to take my vacation next year??

TOBY V

Just curious what did he say for this year???

davidmil

Toby.... he was dead on the money this year.

Scar955

Is that the one that said the 2nd Estrus is supposed to start December 15th?

Olink

I can't even tell you when the rut was in my area. Poorest rut I ever saw. If I remember correctly, he predicted a strong rut. So I guess you can say that in some regions, Alsheimer's predictions for this year missed the mark quite a bit.

tabby

If they are correct, Pa archery season should be gold. Can't wait. Taking a semester off from school so I can't hunt EVERY day.

DaveH

Is there a link to his site? From what I saw, this year was a pretty good rut and I want to see if his dates agree with mine.

bscofield

What does he use to get his predictions? Moon phases? This might be stupid, but... is this moon phases as in astrology? Or moon phases as in the same way it effects ocean/wind?

HANKFAN

Alsheimer's predictions are based upon the moon phases. His theory in short is that the does pineal gland cues off of the rutting moon (the second full moon after the autimnal equinox. At some point in autumn, the amount of sunlight decreases enough to reset the whitetail's reproductive clock, thus placing the breeding season in November, December and January in the Northern Hemisphere. When a doe's reproductive cycle is reset, her estrous cycle is ready to be cued by moonlight, which provides a bright light stimulus to the pineal gland several nights in a row each lunar month. Then, the rapid decrease in the lunar brightness during the moon's third quarter triggers hormonal production by the pineal gland. Physiological changes prompted by the pinel gland culminate in ovulation and estrus.

I know it sounds crazy but I swear this guy has been dead on in his predicitons in my area for the last 4 seasons. So who knows but if he is correct we should see an early rut next season!!

NJ_Bowhntr

Actually, in my area, he has missed the mark for two years, and I've only looked at his date for two years. Last year, he predicted peak rut to be in early to mid December, with little to no rutting activity in November. Yet in our area, the usual time period of Halloween to November 15 was good. According to Charles, it should have been dead. Also, I didn't see, and I don't know anyone who saw, sustained rutting activity in the first two weeks of December last year.

As for this year, He predicted bucks would be resting from the Halloween period through the first week of November, yet our guys in Ohio had the best rutting activity of the year at that time. In NJ, guys were reporting good rutting activity as well. I planned my vacation time around his prediction and missed it big time. For me, it was the worst rut I've seen in a long, long time. I think I just missed it. The best plan is to hunt whenever you can, and pay attention to what is going on in the woods, not what some moon table predicts.

There are many factors that affect the timing of the rut, but I don't really think his moon tables are very reliable, at least they have not been accurate where I, and many others I know hunt.