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10-18-2002 | 06:34 PM
#2
Typical Buck
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 538
Likes: 0
From: victor ny
RE: MOON PHASE
10:06 to 12:06 tommorrow is a major feeding time and 10:30 to 12:30 tommorrow night is another one.the full moon phase for october starts on the 21st so from now till the end of next week, mid day hunts should produce lots of deer sightings and with any luck a shot.for a moon calender go to www.moontimes.com i havn't been on this site but the feeling i get is its a place to order a moon calender.
10-19-2002 | 09:53 AM
#4
Fork Horn
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 417
Likes: 0
From:
RE: MOON PHASE
Here is my reply, from one of my books.
Do Game Predictors Work?
In my own efforts to correlate deer movement with weather and moon factors I kept precise daily records from October 1, 1994 through January 8, 2001. To check the accuracy of these tables I compared the tables with the (4,000) deer sightings of myself and four other hunters. Upon checking the results I found very little correlation between the predictors and deer movement other than during the normal movement times of dawn and dusk. Between 10 AM and 3 PM there was very little deer movement at the times predicted by these tables. On several occasions I watched deer lay down and get up, but could not correlate their movement with any of the tables.
All the tables predicted game activity during normal morning and evening movement times on five days in November 1994, and above normal deer activity did occur on two of those days. But, the tables were accurate only 17 percent of the time, and only when they predicted activity during normal deer movement times, in the morning and evening, when most deer are seen by hunters anyhow. There were also four days when above normal activity occurred when it was not predicted by the tables. Overall the tables did a poor job of accurately predicting DAYTIME deer movement, outside of normal daily deer movement hours.
The problem with the tables, even when they are correct, and if they work, is that they don't agree on which days or times are best to hunt. So, which table should you use? Is one better than the others? What if the select days don't coincide with the hunting season, or coincide with the days you have available to hunt? What if the select times don't coincide with the hours you can hunt? Then the tables do you no good. By the way, if you choose to use all the tables available you end up hunting almost the whole day for the entire month.
Research by Dr. Kent Kammermeyer showed no correlation between peak deer activity times and tidal activity, which is to say that the gravitational pull of the moon is a poor predictor of deer movement/feeding times. Research by several biologists shows that pekddeer acvity times of deer in the fall are at dawn and dusk.
The tables work on fish because they are suspended in water, and they feel tidal action, even in lakes.
Hope that helps. If you still believe in overhead/underfoot moon times go ahead and buy a chart. I dont' waste my time on them. I hunt morning and evening when the deer are most active, and I hunt any hour I have free. By the way, research by Dr. Karl Miller shows no correlation between peak breeding (of over 2,500 does in 11 different states between 1980 and 19870 and ANY moon phase.
Got more questions on the moon, post a new topic addressed to me, or e-mail me.
T.R. Michels
[email protected]
T.R. Michels
Do Game Predictors Work?
In my own efforts to correlate deer movement with weather and moon factors I kept precise daily records from October 1, 1994 through January 8, 2001. To check the accuracy of these tables I compared the tables with the (4,000) deer sightings of myself and four other hunters. Upon checking the results I found very little correlation between the predictors and deer movement other than during the normal movement times of dawn and dusk. Between 10 AM and 3 PM there was very little deer movement at the times predicted by these tables. On several occasions I watched deer lay down and get up, but could not correlate their movement with any of the tables.
All the tables predicted game activity during normal morning and evening movement times on five days in November 1994, and above normal deer activity did occur on two of those days. But, the tables were accurate only 17 percent of the time, and only when they predicted activity during normal deer movement times, in the morning and evening, when most deer are seen by hunters anyhow. There were also four days when above normal activity occurred when it was not predicted by the tables. Overall the tables did a poor job of accurately predicting DAYTIME deer movement, outside of normal daily deer movement hours.
The problem with the tables, even when they are correct, and if they work, is that they don't agree on which days or times are best to hunt. So, which table should you use? Is one better than the others? What if the select days don't coincide with the hunting season, or coincide with the days you have available to hunt? What if the select times don't coincide with the hours you can hunt? Then the tables do you no good. By the way, if you choose to use all the tables available you end up hunting almost the whole day for the entire month.
Research by Dr. Kent Kammermeyer showed no correlation between peak deer activity times and tidal activity, which is to say that the gravitational pull of the moon is a poor predictor of deer movement/feeding times. Research by several biologists shows that pekddeer acvity times of deer in the fall are at dawn and dusk.
The tables work on fish because they are suspended in water, and they feel tidal action, even in lakes.
Hope that helps. If you still believe in overhead/underfoot moon times go ahead and buy a chart. I dont' waste my time on them. I hunt morning and evening when the deer are most active, and I hunt any hour I have free. By the way, research by Dr. Karl Miller shows no correlation between peak breeding (of over 2,500 does in 11 different states between 1980 and 19870 and ANY moon phase.
Got more questions on the moon, post a new topic addressed to me, or e-mail me.
T.R. Michels
[email protected]
T.R. Michels
10-20-2002 | 08:50 AM
#6
Fork Horn
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 417
Likes: 0
From:
RE: MOON PHASE
DO MOOn PREDICTORS WORK????
Again this was a reply but, I'll also post it.
To answer the question:
I've got over 4,000 deer sightings over a 7 year period from my research, all on graphs, with the ovehead/underfoot positon of the moon plotted. When I looked at the times of the deer sightings, most of them were at dawn and dusk, just like the graphs produced by several deer biologists. Peak deer movement times in the fall are at dawn and dusk, and they are not correlated with the position of the moon; in my study, or any deer biologist's study.
The books and predictor's are a way to get you guys to buy products. Not one of the several deer biologists I talk to on a regular basis believe they work. They may work on fish, because fish are suspended in water, and they feel gravitational pull of the moon, through tides, even in lakes. Deer aren't suspended in water. Ask any person or table designer to show you scientific proof that they work. I tried. They can't do it, because they don't have any proof.
YES, my contention (and belief, of me and several top deer biologists, based on scientific research) is that the overhead/underfoot moon position does not cause deer to move more than normal. Nor does it determine when they will get up or lay down.
The only predictor that APPEARS TO WORK, is Jeff Murrauy's Moon Guide. He says that when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 5AM and 9AM look for deer at a food source, when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 9AM and 11AM look for deer in transition zones (going from feeding areas to beddng areas), when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 11AM and 3PM look for deer in their beddding areas; etc, etc. Well, DUH. How can you be wrong when that's where most of the deer are going to be anyhow. I could just as easily say the deer are going to move when I have to use the bathroom
at those times.
Peak Breding
The data provided to me by the Minnesota DNR, of over 1,600 does, between 1980 and 1987, shows that peak breeding in Minnesota occurs during the second week of November. During those years the moon occurred most frequently during the and third and fourth weeks of November. In other word, no correlation with the moon and peak breeing. Dr. Karl Miller's study (and several other researchers) of 2,500+ does in 11 states, from VT to MN and from GA to MI, showed no correlation between peak breeding and ANY lunar phase.
Now, think about this. Those studies were down BEFORE any of the peak breeding/moon phase theories were out there. The studies weren't done to disprove the theories; the studies were done to find out when peak breeding occurred. The PREVIOUS studies disproved the theories. Karl Miller told me he told at least one writer he was wrong. When I told one biologist/writer about Karl's study, and asked him what he thought about it, he sad, "He's probably right, photoperoid (of the moon sic.), determines peak breeding." I've asked several writers and researchers to proof their theories. Again, they can't do it. If they could they would present a research paper on the subject to the scientific communtiy, but NO ONE has ever done it.
Yes, it is my contention (and the belief of me and several deer biologists, based on scientific research)that the phase of the moon has NOTHING to do with determining peak breeding of white-tailed deer.
Geez,
I hate when I have to write this much, but I don't want to state a position on something like this without some good, hard evidence.
There is evidence that the moon affects deer activtiy, but not in the way that the daily/hourly or breeding predictors/tables imply. Don't waste your money. If you want to hunt when the deer are most active, hunt near food sourcesin the mornings and evenings; hunt transition zones in the late morning hours and early evening hours; hunt bedding hours at midday; don't hunt at night, because it ain't legal.
Hope that clears that up.
T.R. Michels
[email protected]
T.R. Michels
Edited by - trmichels on 10/20/2002 10:03:47
Again this was a reply but, I'll also post it.
To answer the question:
I've got over 4,000 deer sightings over a 7 year period from my research, all on graphs, with the ovehead/underfoot positon of the moon plotted. When I looked at the times of the deer sightings, most of them were at dawn and dusk, just like the graphs produced by several deer biologists. Peak deer movement times in the fall are at dawn and dusk, and they are not correlated with the position of the moon; in my study, or any deer biologist's study.
The books and predictor's are a way to get you guys to buy products. Not one of the several deer biologists I talk to on a regular basis believe they work. They may work on fish, because fish are suspended in water, and they feel gravitational pull of the moon, through tides, even in lakes. Deer aren't suspended in water. Ask any person or table designer to show you scientific proof that they work. I tried. They can't do it, because they don't have any proof.
YES, my contention (and belief, of me and several top deer biologists, based on scientific research) is that the overhead/underfoot moon position does not cause deer to move more than normal. Nor does it determine when they will get up or lay down.
The only predictor that APPEARS TO WORK, is Jeff Murrauy's Moon Guide. He says that when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 5AM and 9AM look for deer at a food source, when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 9AM and 11AM look for deer in transition zones (going from feeding areas to beddng areas), when the moon is overhead/underfoot between 11AM and 3PM look for deer in their beddding areas; etc, etc. Well, DUH. How can you be wrong when that's where most of the deer are going to be anyhow. I could just as easily say the deer are going to move when I have to use the bathroom
at those times.
Peak Breding
The data provided to me by the Minnesota DNR, of over 1,600 does, between 1980 and 1987, shows that peak breeding in Minnesota occurs during the second week of November. During those years the moon occurred most frequently during the and third and fourth weeks of November. In other word, no correlation with the moon and peak breeing. Dr. Karl Miller's study (and several other researchers) of 2,500+ does in 11 states, from VT to MN and from GA to MI, showed no correlation between peak breeding and ANY lunar phase.
Now, think about this. Those studies were down BEFORE any of the peak breeding/moon phase theories were out there. The studies weren't done to disprove the theories; the studies were done to find out when peak breeding occurred. The PREVIOUS studies disproved the theories. Karl Miller told me he told at least one writer he was wrong. When I told one biologist/writer about Karl's study, and asked him what he thought about it, he sad, "He's probably right, photoperoid (of the moon sic.), determines peak breeding." I've asked several writers and researchers to proof their theories. Again, they can't do it. If they could they would present a research paper on the subject to the scientific communtiy, but NO ONE has ever done it.
Yes, it is my contention (and the belief of me and several deer biologists, based on scientific research)that the phase of the moon has NOTHING to do with determining peak breeding of white-tailed deer.
Geez,
I hate when I have to write this much, but I don't want to state a position on something like this without some good, hard evidence.
There is evidence that the moon affects deer activtiy, but not in the way that the daily/hourly or breeding predictors/tables imply. Don't waste your money. If you want to hunt when the deer are most active, hunt near food sourcesin the mornings and evenings; hunt transition zones in the late morning hours and early evening hours; hunt bedding hours at midday; don't hunt at night, because it ain't legal.
Hope that clears that up.
T.R. Michels
[email protected]
T.R. Michels
Edited by - trmichels on 10/20/2002 10:03:47
