ddear wrote:
You obviously have a good understanding of herd dynamics , so why dont you take a crack at my example. Could it be you don't want to end the discussion with your answer?
I haven't taken a crack at your example because you have not framed an answerable question. In order to project what a deer herd will do over time it is necessary to describe in detail what the herd is that you are starting with and then make some assumptions with regard to birth rates and mortality rates. You simply said you had 11 adult doe and 3 fawn doe. How old are they? How long can they live if they are not killed by hunters? How many buck and doe do 18 month old doe give birth to. How about 2 1/2 year old doe? Do they give birth when they are 8 years old? What is the post season mortality rates? You said the total initial population was 21 deer so that means there must be 7 buck. How old are they? Maybe its not as simple as you think.
Just for kicks here is a sample scenario filling in for a lot of blanks that you left out.
The initial population will consist of 11 1 1/2 year old doe 3 6 month old female fawns and 7 1 1/2 year old buck. Thats the 21 you wanted. I think you also indicated that the newborn mortality rate is 48% so I will set that. Just for the purpose of running the model I'll say that hunters will kill 80% of all antlered deer and 20% of antlerless deer. I will set a 7% post season mortality for both male and females younger than 6 1/2. No deer will live beyond 6 1/2. With regard to births I'll assume adult females 5 1/2 or under give birth to 1 buck and 1 doe fawn.
This of course is an initial population that is not very balanced age wise so we would expect it to take time to stabilize. Any way, here are the initial settings and away we go...
