At a 35% kill rate 300k less licenses should mean somewhere around 105k less doe killed.
Wrong wrong ,triple wrong.
In 2001 with only 773K. , 227 K less anterless tags than in 2004 , hunters still harvested 283K anterless, which was 63K more than the 220 K anterless deer that kept the herd stable in 1997.
The issuance of 450 K bonus tags makes your analysis invalid because the success rate for bonus tags is lower than for first round anterless tags.