While I agree that stats matter and are a powerful indicator, they remain an historical reference. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance as the saying goes.

Mast crops, agricultural crops, forage in general, disease, the severity of the winters, changes in regulations (see Pennsylvania's rather new antler restrictions...give that 10 years or so to work), and most importantly the harvest or over-harvest could cause changes that would set the statistics on their noses.

No, the stats are not really all that matter...