I agree that if your hit was in the chest and you didn't get a pass-through you likely hit shoulder. If you hit solid bone you would likely have heard a very distinct whaaack sound. Hopefully the shoulder you hit was the opposite shoulder, in which case your deer will be down in less than 100 yards. If you hit the entry-side shoulder, your guess on recovery is as good as mine. It all depends on how far your arrow penetrated beyond the shoulder bones. Good luck!