Once AR's have been in place for a few years, your odds are going to be alot better. That statement "with AR's, hunters will harvest 1 buck every ten years'' to me that dosent make sense. How could it?? You are not allowed to harvest bucks, so that means there will be more bucks out there, which means your odds get better, not worse.
In a stable herd AR increases the number of total buck ,but it decreases the number of legal buck, due to number of adult buck that are lost to non-hunting mortality . In PA we loose 18% of our adult buck to non-hunting mortality,so for every additional 50K buck saved by AR , we loose 9 K ,and the sustainable buck harvest is reduced by 9 K.
Since the goal is to reduce the herd from 1.1M OWD to 570K OWD they can't protect BB and have any chance of of reducing the anterless herd. In 2002 they issued 1 M anterless tags and we harvested 352 K anterless deer and the herd still increased by 1.6%. Therefore ,we need every hunter we currently have, including those that shoot spikes and Y's. The rack hunters are the ones that pass on doe while waiting for that big buck,but the spike hunter is more likely to take the first legal deer that comes along.