The 7.62x39 will shoot flatter and carry more down range energy than the 30-30 because you can shoot pointed bullets with it. I would say they would have plenty of knockdown at 200yds. The problem is being able to hit anything at 200yds.
I don't think this is correct. Sure the 7.62x39 shoots pointed bullets, but that's only part of the equation. The bullets may be pointed, but they are light and stubby at only 125 grains, which is going to have a profound effect on ballistic coefficient. And the Soviet only shoots that bullet slightly faster than the 30-30 can propel a larger 150-180gr bullet. The larger longer bullet will greatly improve downrange performance. And it is possible to use spitzer pointed bullets even in a lever action rifle. To do so one must take care not to load more than one round in the tubular mag at a time. So one would still have two shots to work with.
Personally, I feel that the 7.62x39 Soviet is NOT a 200 yard deer round. It'd do OK at 100, but much past that and its small slow bullet would be losing a lot of steam.
As for the 7.62x54R, it would certainly be a better all around deer cartridge, but good factory hunting ammo might be hard to find. I used to have a Mosin-Nagant carbine in 7.62x54R, and it did ok at 100 yards. The open sights are the usual eastern-bloc crap iron sights, and with the straight bolt handle scope mounting was impossible unless you had the handle bent. Not worth the work on a $75 gun. I might suggest that you look for a 1903 Springfield service rifle. It'd be chambered in .30-06 (this cartridge speaks for itself), and should be reasonably accurate. Another great choice would be a Mauser 98 rifle. Not only a great rifle in its original form is you find a good one, but also an outstanding platform to build a fine custon rifle on if you ever chose to do so.
Mike