As a resident, I don't know the odds. I do know that there are outfitters with transferable tags that can be purchased at what ever the market will bear type rate. Also virtually all hunting is on private land with very little public land in the state. Be sure you have a place to hunt if you do draw a tag. I don't have a lot of experience hunting in other states, but I do hunt what I believe is excellent property and in some 25 years of bowhunting I have taken 3 p&y deer. They are not everywhere as some shows and publications would have you believe. If you do come let me know how you do. Good luck.