To me.
It's about the availability of hens.
Lots of hens the Tom just follows in Full Strut hoping to get lucky. He doesn't need to gobble. If he gobbles at all it's a few times from roost and maybe a time or to once on the ground to announce his presence.
Yes we still are finding that hot Tom occasionally and it's a classical text book hunt.
But mainly 2 yr old. Either alone or following a few Jakes.
And the second peak of gobbling hasn't started yet.
Hens are splitting off, I am seeing single hens here and there and they may be laying eggs. But certainly no where near incubating.
Oh another factor.
I'm not seeing the number of birds using fields.
They are staying and feeding in the woods.
Still lots of acorns.
And I seen my fair share of coyotes.
I fact I had 3 Jake's in molesting a hen decoy. They clearly saw that coyote but just kept on molesting my decoy. I really thought the yote was going to charge. And I was ready for him.
But a live Turkey leg kick on a rubber decoy, created a sound that spooked that coyote.
It saved him.
I've got pictures. Will post when I'm off this phone.
Just my musings. I've hunted 2 states so far. Am in constant contact with guys in two others.
Was 25°F this morning. A bit chilly.