If I was you i'd pick a unit that has at least a 50% chance of getting a tag with no points as a 1st pick. It's better than just putting in for a point.

For a 2nd pick you have two choices. Find a unit you can get a cow tag as a 2nd pick. If that doesn't appeal to you and you only want to hunt for a bull. Get an OTC tag for a bull.

It's always better to hunt for elk than sit home looking at a point.

Crowds are not always as bad as some make it out to be. Sometimes those crowds will drive an elk right into you. You just need to know where to wait for that to happen. Look at how many elk are taken in OTC units. Hunters are getting elk. It could be you too.