A pure lead ball will expand on an animal 100% of the time. A 100% is a bold statement, and i'd never say it about any other bullet.

The problem is to make sure it doesn't over-expand, and not penetrate enough. This is done by too heavy of a powder charge.

I've shot round balls since 1980. Expanding is never a problem with them.

I'm not a fan of newspaper, water jugs etc. Show me what it does on an animal, and i'll take notice.