Nomercy448

Be very careful - a great number of the internet experts that will offer opinions on the 30-30 as well as the 45-70 have never shot both, or even either. Everybody has an opinion, because they're age old cartridges, but there are a lot more folks online that will offer their opinion on the matter even though the have never actually eaten game that was killed by either one.

You mentioned that you see that 80% of respondents lean towards the 30-30. That lack of actual experience is quite likely a driving force behind that imbalance - there's a nasty rumor going around that the 45-70 has terrible recoil, and of course, folks tend to favor lighter, faster rounds than big slow ones, so they give opinions without experience.

I'll cast my vote first for 45-70, and then for "flip a coin". I'd honestly rather have a 44mag levergun than a 30-30, but you didn't ask about 44mag.

Out of your two, if I could only have ONE, it'd be a 45-70. BUT... You've probably neglected the most important part... The difference in trajectory might be the most important factor for you.

No, if both are placed where they should be, the 45-70 will not damage more meat. Even if they're placed somewhere they shouldn't be, the 45-70 won't noticeably damage more meat. Shoot through both shoulders and both will get nasty on the front shoulder, the 30-30 will likely stop so it won't touch the back shoulder, but you'll be able to eat up to the hole on the far shoulder with the 45-70. Pull off a broadside double heart and lung and both will exit, and you might have a hard time telling the difference between the two.

I'd be prone to say there's not much difference here either, especially with factory loads from the 1895 Guide Gun vs. a longer barreled 336. As an example, I get a true 2350fps with Hornady FTX 160grn in 30-30 out of a Glenfield 30A (Marlin 336), but I lose a LOT of speed in my 1895 Guide Guns - only pushing 1795fps with the 325grn Hornady FTX 45-70. Impact kills. While it's a lot bigger bullet, it's going REALLY slow. I get a LOT of "run 20yrds and crumple" kills with the 45-70, whereas I get more "DRT" or "dropped where he stood" kills with the 30-30. Let the placement slide a few inches, and either cartridge will leave them running.

It is nice, however, to be able to count on bullet weight. If you have a quartering towards shot, to be able to be more confident in crushing the near shoulder and still penetrating to the vitals. It's not a good shot to take, but if it's the only one I get, I'd rather have the 45-70 in hand. BUT, if I'm honest, I'd take a neck shot quartering towards before I take the shoulder shot. With a quartering away shot in brush, I might want to take the "far shoulder" shot so that I know I can crush my way out - 3 legged deer with no lungs don't run as fast as 4 legged deer with no lungs.

Alternatively - the 30-30 does win for trajectory. Comparing my REAL WORLD RIFLES using Hornady factory Leverevolution ammo for both, I get as much drop at 250yrds in the 45-70 as I do at about 325yrds out of the 30-30. Either will kill with ease at those ranges, but it's REALLY a challenge to hit your target past 250yrds with factory ammo in the Marlin Guide Gun (remember, they're leaving the barrel at a paltry 1795fps!!).

So unless you're willing to dial the range in your scope, and practice a lot at range estimation, or are fantastic at estimating hold over, the 45-70 is really a 150yrds or less proposition. My drop chart is really easy to remember for the FTX:

45-70 Hornady FTX 325grn at 1795fps
150 = 5"
175 = 10"
200 = 15"
225 = 22"
250 = 30"

If you can hold over 30" at 250yrds, or you won't shoot that far, then the 45-70 would get my vote. The 30-30 will be at ~325yrds before it drops 30" below a 100yrd zero, so if you think you'll shoot farther than 200yrds, or you have trouble estimating range, the 30-30 might be the better option.