You didn't mention if any blood was on the arrow and if so, how far up the shaft? How much of the arrow was sticking out of the deer after the shot? These are key pieces of info that will tell you about depth of penetration. I think you are right, sounds like you hit him in the upper part of the shoulder, the question is how far in did that arrow go based on what you saw after the shot and the blood on the arrow. This should give you a good idea if he is dead or not.

Start tracking in circles from the point where you found the arrow. Bring toilet paper and mark your trail as you move outward. I have had several one lung shots before and I have always recovered the deer and each time, my arrow was broke off but never found in one piece unless it passed through.