I guess all of this speculating keeps us entertained, as far as MEANING anything regarding the rut and it's timing..It's all just speculation...We see some rutting sign or lack of it, or see a buck dogging a doe, and try to attach some sort of pattern to it...

This is what happens...Every year in a period between mid September and late December, deer mate... It's not as if somebody throws a switch and they all turn on at a specific time... Some years due to weather patterns or whatever, there are periods when the mating activity is quite intense..Other years, it takes place much more gradually and there may not be any noticable, intense "peak" of the rut..

As far as mistaking turkey sign for deer sign, I agree that it probably happens often.. In my case, however, I was looking at deer sign before there was even a huntable population of turkeys in NY.. I'm also an avid turkey hunter and I know the difference between turkey scratching and a buck scrape..