Charlie,
I hear you on all the variables. It's easy to be an armchair quarterback and say, "Hey, how'd you miss that shot". It's another thing to be behind the sights, sweating with a touch of buck fever. I've been fortunate to only miss a deer with a ML once, but I've only been hunting with a ML for 5 years.
On the other hand, I've missed deer with a shotgun and a bow multiple times, even though I practiced a lot with them and thought I was ready. I've had scope/sight problems that cause misses, deer moving at the last second, buck fever and some unexplained ones as well.
Just keep practicing, keep looking for a very accurate load and try your best - that's all we can do!