I was on a committee for a controlled hunt and got called out many times each season to search for wonded deer.We recovered 100% of the gut shot deer that we went after as long as the deer weren't pushed.If someone gut shot a deer and immediately left the area until morning,we found the deer every single time and it was always almost within 100 yards of where they lost sight of it from their stand.Usually it was within 50 to 60 yards from where they last saw it. Two years ago,I helped recover 5 different gut shot deer that were left overnight and three of them were still alive the next morning.None of the gut shot deer I've ever recovered,and there's been dozens of them ever went to water.If they aren't spooked to bad and not pressured,they usually lay down as soon as they can and generally don't get back up unless someone pushed them.The opposite side of the story also holds true.Every year,we get loads of calls from guys who gut shoot deer and immediately decide to go after them.I can't remember a single one that we recovered that was pushed soon after being shot.This is archery season I speaking of.
From my experience,the whole water theory is over rated.Deer run to where they feel safe and in many cases,there's no figuring that out.I've seen mortaly wounded deer go up steep ravines and pass right through or over water.
Patience is the best tool any hunter can use to find marginally hit deer.Most mortaly wounded deer will lay down in a very short distance.If they don't get pushed,you'll usually find them right there.If I shoot a deer before dark and I don't see it go down or hear it crash,I wait til morning.I've tracked way too many deer after dark that others hunters claimed were hit perfect to take any chances.