First I check the moon - big moons call for larger caliber. Then the wind - west wind almost always needs a flintlock, a North wind suggests an in-line, South or east needs a caplock. Then I check the coffee grinds from my morning coffee to see if I should use black powder, Triple 7, or Pyrodex. I hate those mornings when the wind says flintlock and the coffee grinds say Triple 7.