When you say the number of hits in a 10" circle at 45 yds, you say one gun had 40 and the other had 16? That isn't much, and IMO not good enough to hunt with.

But, the number of hits in a 10" circle is not really what you need to know, you should be concerned with the number of hits in the head/neck of a turkey. You want as many as you can reasonably get, but I hear 10 is about the minimum acceptable number.

I shoot a Mossberg 500, with Win. SuperX 3" #5, standard full choke, and I limit my shots to 30-35 yds. I know with an extra full chokeI could get more range, but I hunt in areas where I can't really see more than 30, so any bird I can see I can usually shoot. Very tight chokes are good for extra range, but they also make close shots harder because the pattern is very small at say 15-20 yds.

As for your choice of guns, I'd think about getting a Mossberg 500, 535, or 835. If money is an issue, you can usually find used ones in shops on on-line.