This has come up several times over the past few months so I thought I would post this:
The top row is 200gr SWs, the bottom row is 240gr XTPs. All the deformed bullets were recovered in deer. The massively deformed SW to the left of the pristine example in the middle was shot at MV of 2100 fps (110gr 777) and impacted a large doe at 80 yards through both shoulders. As you can see, it opened almost flat under the far side skin while the lead exited in one piece through the skin leaving the jacket underneath. The less deformed bullet to the right was shot with the same load, more or less the same impact spot and recovery spot, but from 208 yards.
The XTP was shot from the same gun, same charge, and impacted a large doe through the shoulders at 75 yards. The bullet exited the far side and was found after tumbling in a thin layer of snow a few times maybe 40 yards beyond the deer.
What this tells me is that Shockwaves certainly do expand. These bullets did so shooting through shoulders over a WIDE velocity range as evidenced by the impact range difference of about 130 yards (208 - 80). Do they fragment? I argue this would indicate not. Even with an 80 yard shot that passed through about as much bone as any bullet will need to pass through, the lead did not separate until the jacket got caught under the offside skin. Clearly any easier path (through lungs, heart, ribs) would have resulted in a less aggressive expansion.
But will they open without hitting the shoulder? I argue the 208 yard example says they do. The impact velocity was MUCH lower that far out, yet the bullet was still very opened. A closer shot with much higher velocity would make up for hitting less bone in creating expansion.
I wish I had some non-shoulder shots to post but those are ALWAYS pass-thrus. And none of those deer have gone very far for me so it is hard to argue with the results.
Contrast this to the XTP. The front third of the bullet expanded with the base intact. But the front only expanded modestly over the bullet diameter. I do not have wound channel pictures but I can tell you a Shockwave wound channel is more impressive than what this XTP did. I shot the HTP (predecessor to the XTP) for years and the deer, on average, ran further than the ones I shoot with the SW.
I look at it this way. These Shockwaves expand well for me on deer over a wide velocity range and I have had excellent luck dropping them in their tracks or after only a few steps, even when I don't hit a shoulder. The XTP expanded only modestly at close range, would it have expanded at all at 200 yds? I doubt it. Deer are soft. I think the SW is a great DEER bullet, but the XTP would make the better elk/hog bullet of these two examples. I would not shoot an elk with the 200SW and expect it to perform as well as it does on deer. If I shot an elk in the shoulder at 50 yds with this SW there is a chance it would not penetrate adequately.