ORIGINAL: bluebird2
ARs always produce a higher percentage of 2.5+ buck in the herd , but it is a meaningless figure to the hunters in the field. To them the meaningful figure is the number of 2.5+ buck available to be harvested and that number was less in 2007 than in 2002, the first year of ARs.
You certainly can’t say that is an accurate statement. In fact I can pretty much guarantee that is not an accurate statement.
Well, let's see how good your guarantee really is. In 2002 we harvested 112,814 and if ARs saved 50% of the 1.5 buck than we carried over 112,814 buck to become 2.5+ buck. But in 2003 we only harvested 80K 2.5+ buck or 54% of the 1.5 buck that were carried over. If you apply the same harvest rate to the 2.5+ buck harvest in 2002 then there were over 96K 2.
Now compare that to the harvest of 61K , 1.5 buck in 2007 and the 61K that will be carried over to become 2.5+ buck and you will see we had a lot more 2.5 plus buck in 2002 than we had in 2007 or 2008.
That would maybe be a valid argument if the numbers of legal bucks within each age group remained static each year, but the reality is they don’t. The number of 1 ½ year old bucks that are legal for harvest each year is variable depending on a number of environmental factors for the previous year.
In 2001, when the 1 ½ year old bucks of 2002 were just button bucks we had a good mast crop followed by almost no winter snow. That allowed all of the button bucks to go through the winter in better then normal condition and grain weight through the winter. Then during the next summer, prior to the 2002 season a higher then normal percentage of the 1 ½ year old bucks grew legal antlers. Thus it is very unlikely that 50% of the 1 ½ year old bucks were protected from harvest during the 2002 season.
To support that fact I will post the number of 1 ½ year old bucks harvested for the year prior to and since 2002.
Year……………….1 ½ year old buck harvest……………….2 ½ and older bucks harvested
1998.……………………146,700.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦.......34,749
1999.……………………155,429.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦.......38,942
2000.……………………165,960.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦.......37,261
2001.……………………159,392.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦.......43,855
2002.……………………112,809.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦.......52,607
2003.…………………….80,276.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦........61,994
2004.…………………….62,011.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦........62,399
2005.…………………….62,540.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦........57,961
2006.…………………….75,762.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦........59,528
2007.…………………….61,152.…………⠀¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦â€¦........48,048
As anyone being objective can see from the comparison of the number of 1 ½ year old bucks being harvested in the years prior to 2002 and those harvested during the 2002 season it is simply not realistic to believe that 50% of the 1 ½ year old bucks were protected from harvest in that 2002 season. That failure to protect 50% of the 1 ½ year old bucks also has a reducing affect on the next years harvest of older bucks, since they aren't available as older bucks when they are harvested as 1 ½ year old bucks.
Other things that will adversely affect the number of 1 ½ year old bucks harvested during any given year is the number that were recruited into the deer herd as button bucks the previous year. If they don’t survive as fawns they are never available as 1 ½ year old bucks or as older bucks in even later years. That has been a large part of the buck harvest problem during the years since those hard winters of 2002/2003 and 2003/2004.
To further illustrate the variance in the buck antler development from one year to the next I will also post the percentage of spike bucksalong with the percentage of antler legal bucks seen each yearduring the Elk County fallwildlife survey routes since 2002.
Year……………….% of bucks spikes………………..% of bucks with antler legal racks
2002.………………….24.1 %………………………………....51.7 %
2003.………………….26.7 %………………………………....46.7 %
2004.………………….55.2 %………………………………....27.6 %
2005.………………….42.9 %………………………………....38.1 %
2006.………………….14.3 %………………………………....67.9 %
2007.………………….24.1 %………………………………....34.5 %
2008.………………….13.5 %………………………………....64.9 %
From this data an objective person should be able see the reality of just how much both the number and percentage of 1 ½ year old bucks being harvested can change from one year to another year by the percentage that would be legal from one year to another. It is also pretty easy to see just how much affect the fall mast crop and winter snow conditions can have on the following year's antler development. That antler development on the 1 ½ year old bucks not only determines how many will be legal for harvest that year but also how many will be left as 2 ½ and older bucks in th following years.
One other thing that any objective person should be able to see is just how Bluebird cherry picks data andmisrepresents it in order to make it seem like it supports his misguided agenda when in reality it doesn’t support his point if you fully evaluate and understand the real facts and the rest of the story along with the data.
R.S. Bodenhorn