I think your own answer may defintely play a part in it. Now, it's widely known that I'm not...what you might call, a highly succesfull buck hunter. I NEVER see bucks before November. Never. Until last year. I was seeing bucks for about 10-12 days prior toHalloween, the earliest I've ever seen them while on stand. So, Chuck's prediction may be a little more accurate than our poll shows.

That being said...I honestly feel that the 3 phases are actually pretty consistent year to year. I think that if you're in the woods Nov. 3-Nov.15 you're gonna be spot on. Because if photoperiodism really is what triggers it, it would stand to reason that whatever that amount of light is would fall on the same day year after year, or very close to it anyway. I think this being a leap year has it messed up a little bit too.