Just looking over some stuff here - I found some data that I thought was particularly interesting...

As a matter of background, I read this brief passage authored by Chuck Alsheimer, who I consider to be one of the planet's top authorities on whitetail behavior.

The crux of the article is that the rutting moon arrives with the second full moon after the autumnal equinox. According to Chuck, the best 8 days to be in the woods are the 4 days before and after the Rutting moon arrives. This is widely known as the "seeking phase."

Using 2007 as a guide, the dates fell as follows:
[ul][*]Autumnal Equinox: 9/23/07[*]First Full Moon: 9/26/07[*]Second Full Moon: 10/26/07[/ul]By his calculation, last year, the prime time to arrow a buck would have been between 10/22 and 10/30.

Sounds good, right?

Not so fast.

Last year, we conducted a site-wide poll, and it turns out that this timeframe was not the best time, statistically. With 133 recorded buck harvests, it turns out that 35% of the bucks harvested fell between 11/1 and 11/10, while only 18% died between 10/21 and 10/31. Weird.

http://www.huntingnet.com/forum/tm.aspx?m=2726184&mpage=1&key=timing&# 2726184

See for yourself.

So by Alsheimer's lunar calendar, this year's seek phase come much later:
[ul][*]Autumnal Equinox: 9/22/08[*]First Full Moon: 10/14/08[*]Rutting Moon: 11/13/08[/ul]
http://kalender-365.de/lunar-calendar.php?yy=2008 Lunar Calendar

If you go +/- 4 days on the rutting moon, Chuck tells us that this year's peak seek phase will fall between 11/9 and 11/17/08.



So does anyone have any rational explanation as to why our results in 2007 didn't match up with Adelsheimer's prediction?




To take a stab at answering my own question, I'd have to say that our numbers are directly linked to when the Average Joes schedule their hunting vacations - which is usually the first two weeks of november. Also, my journal shows abnormally high temps during the end of October - so that may have played a factor in suppressing the activity levels for a week or so.