HuntingNet.com Forums - View Single Post - Big Buck Barometer
View Single Post
Old 07-03-2008 | 09:29 AM
  #127  
quiksilver's Avatar
quiksilver
Giant Nontypical
 
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 5,716
Likes: 0
Default RE: Big Buck Barometer

I think we're bickering over terminology here:

When I say "representative deer" - for my area - it's a 1.5 year old scrubrack 3x3 - or smaller.

When I say "top-end deer" - I mean a deer that will put you on the leaderboard in the local archery contest. Not the biggest deer in the county.

When I say "the biggest deer in the township/borough/zip code" - I'm talking about a deer that will virtually guarantee you victory in the local deer pool.

When I say "the biggest deer in the county" - I mean exactly that.

The biggest deer in the state - is the biggest deer in the state.

The state record - is the biggest deer ever harvested in a state.

Every township has a big buck, and every county has a lot of townships. Every state has a lot of counties. So, if you look at it through this lens, it seems that there are a lot of big deer in every state.

But hunting them, realistically, is another thing. In my area, the biggest deer in the township is probably a 140. The biggest deer in the county is probably a 160. That said, if you shoot a 115" buck, you'll probably finish in the money in the local bow pool. That's usually around 100 local entries.

So, if I hear a guy in Fayette County, PA say that he's holding out for a 140 - it's a laugh. If past history is any indicator of the present, he has a better chance of being struck by lightning. Let's just say, for the sake of argument that a certain township is 35 square miles (that's about average). 35 square miles is 22,400 acres of land mass. Do you have any idea how hard it is to see, locate, and dial-in on that particular deer? It's a magnanimous commitment of time and effort, topped off by some VERY long odds.


Brace yourselves and open your minds, because His Majesty is about to take you down a road that you've never been down...






Mathematically, if your range is 30 yards...

KILL ZONE= 3.14 x 90 ft (squared)
KILL ZONE= 25,434 square feet

So, if you're hunting a 22,400 acre area....

1 Acre = 43,560 square feet

So, if an average Township is 22,400 acres....

43,560 x 22,400 ACRES = 975,744,000 SQUARE FEET



That means that, at any given time, your odds of having the biggest buck in the township WITHIN 30 yards is:

25,434 / 975,744,000 = .000026

.0026%

That's what I'm trying to say.


quiksilver is offline  
Reply