That's about what I think as well.

We are shooting SD video right now, and will eventually make the jump to HD, but still a few years out on that. Now those that are in contract to shoot footage for established outdoor programming tv, or want to sell their footage to them will need to go HD, as most of the biggest names have gone HD this season. The good thing is that there will be alot of guys getting out of their SD cameras and going HD, so there should be some decent deals out for SD cameras

If you are only doing your own thing right now, SD is all you need. HD is the future though, so for those that are looking to spend some bigger money right now, it would be wise to just apply it to HD now, instead of loosing the depreciation on the SD camera you buy.