Great points, Brian. And I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis. I face a similar problem where I hunt...not too far from you in fact. I hunt in Trempealeau County near Arcadia. We have almost exactly the same issue.
Back in the early 1990' s, the area DID have a problem with overpopulation. No question. It was very common to drive around in the Spring and Summer evenings and see one hundred deer or more in a twenty minute time frame. Ag tags and t-zones were needed, and, along with those of us practicing QDM and harvesting does, the problem was taken care of. Now we have an identical situation to what you described.
The goal is currently at 15 and our population is estimated at 25 and has essentially been 25 for the past 10+ years. Despite various and vast changes to the season structure and tag alotment the population remains stable. This area is managed and managed well by the private landowners. 25 deer per sq. mi. is what the landowners and hunters want in this area as evident by the stable population. Crop damage is not an issue, car collisions are relatively low in comparison to most units and this area has a biological carrying capacity in excess of 100 deer per sq. mi.
Just identical to what we have. But also in our area, the DNR is trying to solve a " problem" that doesn' t exist. We have asked the same questions at meetings and, unfortunately, got the same answers you got. Two years ago, we did manage to pin one of the DNR people down on the WHY of lower overwinter targets. One of the more feeble answers we received was that, if they allowed for a higher goal, then the " possibility of greater crop damage would exist" . Hmmm...the " possibility" ?! By that standard, we should shoot all the deer so there is no " possibility" .
This is one reason that I criticize the DNR. They don' t listen to us, they hold the meetings for show more than substance, and they seemingly ignore us with regards to issues like this. Want to control crop damage? Fine. Avoid car collisions? Fine. But to what degree? To the degree that hunting opportunities are dimished and land values fall? We' re not there yet, but it wouldn' t take much for that to occur. Sure, some parcels that are unhuntable or very difficult to hunt (some of the marshes around Dodge, Meinert' s Slew on the Trempealeau River, etc.) may have higher than desireable populations. But most other areas are below that by a long shot.